Just When You Think You Know What You’re Doing, You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know
NFL Week 9 was a perfect example of why when you think you know everything there is to know about wagering on NFL games, you really know much less than what you think you know. I mean let’s just look at some of the head scratching results from last week.
The Jaguars beat the Bills outright as +19-point underdogs, 9-6. The Broncos beat the Cowboys outright as +10 underdogs, 30-16. The Cardinals with Colt McCoy at QB and no DeAndre Hopkins won outright in San Francisco as +5- point dogs, 31-17. The Titans with no Derrick Henry beat the powerful run and gun Rams outright as +7-point underdogs, 28-16.
Week 10 started off with another crazy game with the mighty Baltimore Ravens favored by -8- on Thursday night against the Miami Dolphins lost outright 22-10 in an ugly and embarrassing performance for the Ravens.
So, what does that mean for the rest of the week 10 slate? I have no idea. But what I do know is there’s one crazy NFL betting stat I heard this week that I’d wager most people don’t know. Let’s check it out!
The Best QB’s Against the Spread
If you had to choose from all the NFL QB’s who have started over twenty-five games in the Super Bowl era, who would you say has the best record against the spread?
Your first thought would be to consider the QB’s with the most all time wins. Topping that list is of course one Tom Brady with 270, followed by Peyton Manning 200, Brett Favre 199, Drew Brees 181, and Ben Roethlisberger at 174.
Well, those answers would all be incorrect.
Okay so how about the QB’s with the all-time highest winning percentage? There are several with a 100% winning percentage, but none of them have started over twenty-five games, so they’re out the window. But there are some interesting names including Drew Henson, the guy Tom Brady had a helluva time beating out for the starting job at Michigan and former Colorado, Washington & UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel who started for the San Diego Chargers as a replacement player during the 1987 NFL players strike and went 3-0. Some guy named Dan Fouts returned as the starter when the strike ended after three weeks.
But I digress. Tops on the winning percentage list is one Patrick Mahomes with a winning percentage of .778 in 63 starts. Tom Brady makes an appearance at #2 with .767% in 352 starts, which is mind boggling. Next is Lamar Jackson at .740 in 50 starts, Roger Staubach at .731 in 130 starts and Joe Montana with a winning percentage of .711 in 187 starts.
Nope, nope, nope, nope and nope.
One of the guys on both of these lists, Tom Brady, does land in the top five ATS percentage with a 57.4%, just behind Josh Allen 59.2%, Aaron Rogers 57.7% and Geno Smith with a 57.5% winning percentage against the spread.
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The King of Covering
But none of them can hold a candle to the Quarterback with the best record against the spread. In his seven-year NFL career, this guy has gone 17-11 SU as the starting QB for the Minnesota Vikings, 5-1 SU with the New Orleans Saints, and 4-11 SU with the Carolina Panthers and 5-4 as a starting QB this year.
This QB’s straight-up record of 31-27 gives him winning percentage of 53.45%, but his 40-18 ATS record gives him a cover percentage of 69%. SIXTY-NINE PERCENT! That’s 11.5% better than runner up Geno Smith.
So, who is this ATS machine? Yup, you guessed it, it’s the one and only Teddy Bridgewater. Maybe we should call him Teddy Bridgecovers. Any way you slice it, that’s an astounding ATS run.
The Worst QB’s Against the Spread
On the other end of the spectrum, which of the current starting QB’s with over twenty-five starts would you think has the worst ATS record?
Come on down Sam Darnold. Your 18-31 ATS record gives you a winning percentage of 36.7%. Of course, now that you’re hurt Cam Newton is back to figure out ways to help Carolina lose games.
Next in line is Baker Mayfield at 43.6% (24-30-1), Matthew Stafford 45.1% (80-93-4), Jameis Winston 45.4% (35-39-3) and Derek Carr 48.3% (57-59-2).
Way to go guys.
Jackass of the Week
Before I get to this week’s pick, it’s time for Grumpy’s Jackass of the Week. There are some great candidates this week including Aaron Rodgers again, Odell Beckham Jr, Sean McVey for signing Odell Beckham Jr, Roger Goodell, Ben Simmons and Rich Paul, but I’m going to go with me. That’s right, me. Grumpy himself is Grumpy’s Jackass of the Week for backing Tyrod Taylor and the horrendous Houston Texans to cover against the Miami Dolphins and losing on another pick. What a disgrace.
Grumpy’s Pick(s) of the Week
Well, with another loser in the books last week I’m going to try again this week to get off the schneid with a two-fer special.
First up are the Seattle Seahawks +3 vs Green Bay and Covid King Aaron Rodgers. I think Russell Wilson’s return will be a huge plus and I look for a big effort from the Seahawks. I also think there’s some definite discord in Green Bay over how one of the biggest narcissists on the planet has handled things and that could weigh on the Pack.
Pick number 2 is the Las Vegas Raiders +3 at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. This is almost more of a pick against the Chiefs than it is on the Raiders because the Chiefs are a mess right now. Sure, they won against Green Bay last week, but Jordan Love flat out stinks and KC only scored 13 points. Give me the Raiders.
If you’d like to check out the game, total and props lines head over to The Props Network NFL page.
Enjoy week 10 and I hope you are fortunate.