Picks and props for your New York flops…
Meadowlands Moneymakers is a weekly series where I tell you my favorite bets on the upcoming N.Y. Giants and N.Y. Jets games.
In this edition, we’re bringing you game picks and top player props for Week 9 Sunday/Monday matchups. On Sunday it’s Jets at Dolphins. Then, the Cowboys visit the Giants for Monday Night Football.
Jets @ Dolphins
Sunday, 1:00 PM
“Behind My Back”
During a 1-6 season where the Jets defense has consistently been the group giving Gang Green a small shot at victory each week (with the sickly Sam Darnold-led offense a weekly disaster), morale among the secondary has reached a low. Slowly but surely, they have slipped to 24th in the NFL against the pass. It seems that team GM Joe Douglas has seen enough, and listened to offers on star safety Jamal Adams before the recent trade deadline. This infuriated Adams, who said he was promised that no trade was imminent, and tweeting that Douglas “went behind my back and shopped me around to teams, even after I asked him to keep me here! Crazy business.”
This comes on the heels of the ugly dispute between the Jets and now-cut offensive guard Kelechi Osemele, over his choice to get season-ending shoulder surgery, in defiance of the team wanting him to play through the pain. These two demoralizing episodes are but two examples of the off-field resentments and bad blood that have bled into on-field play. Before losing to Jacksonville 29-15 last week, New York’s CEO Christopher Johnson commented to a group of visiting Jets fans, “Hopefully, the team will actually show up this week.” They did not.
This week, the Jets fly further south to play a game that (on the surface) they should, absolutely, positively win. That’s because they are taking on the team that has, for most of the season, been considered the very worst in the NFL: The Miami Dolphins. The helmeted sea mammals have the second-worst run defense in the NFL, which means Le’Veon Bell should finally break out with a 100-yard day. Miami also has the NFL’s third-worst passing and rushing offense. So, the Jets D should have an easy day of stopping the bleeding, right?
Wrong. The Jets are now worse than the Dolphins…
New York has the league’s worst passing offense, and second-worst rushing offense – both worse than Miami’s. On pass defense, the Jets rank four spots worse than the Dolphins. Yes, the Dolphins just lost star cornerback Xavier Howard to IR, and then didn’t replace him by trading for IR-dwelling star CB Aqib Talib. And yes, Miami just traded their most explosive offensive player in RB Kenyan Drake to Arizona. And yes, it behooves the league’s current cellar-dwellers to lean into their tanking efforts, and out-suck the Jets for the #1 overall pick in the 2020 draft.
Doubles Game Pick:
All of the above doesn’t matter, because recent history shows the Jets will find a way to lose this game. It will probably be close, reflecting the 3-point spread. However, this number looks like a product of that one home win against the Cowboys. So, I’m going to the Doubles Markets at Unibet and taking a +310 wager that the Dolphins win, with both teams combining for under 41 points
Jets vs. Dolphins – Top Prop Bets
Now, lets stock up on a couple of player props within Week 9’s South Florida showdown:
Top Prop #1 – Mark Walton will rush for 75+ yards
$100 to win $120 (+120) @ PointsBet
The numbers say that the Jets still have the 10th-best rush defense in the NFL. The numbers also say that Walton just ran for all of 35 yards against Pittsburgh’s 15th-ranked rush defense. However, Miami was playing from behind against the Steelers, and Walton’s opportunities suffered. Also, the Jets are currently worse than the numbers how. This week, I expect the Dolphins to deploy Walton while they are ahead, with 75 yards a very attainable number.
Top Prop #2 – Preston Williams will get 75+ receiving yards
$100 to win $106 (+106) @ PointsBet
Miami’s undrafted rookie wide receiver has taken advantage of this ugly Dolphins season to emerge as their top threat through the air (with a team high 51 targets, 27 catches, and 356 yards) for whoever happens to be QB-ing the team that week. Whether it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick or Josh Rosen under center in Week 9, they will have a bit more time to find Williams, since the Jets just traded away a talented pass rusher in DE Leonard Williams. I expect Preston Williams to surpass 75 yards for the second time this season.
Cowboys @ Giants
Monday, 8:20 PM
“We’ve known we can score points. We haven’t done enough of it”
So said Giants QB Daniel Jones after losing 31-26 to the Detroit Lions in Week 8. Despite throwing for 322 yards, four TDs, and zero interceptions, Jones made a costly error in what would be a close game by fumbling the ball after a hit in the first quarter – a fumble that was picked up and returned by Detroit LB Devon Kennard for the game’s opening score.
Two offensive positives for the Giants came in the form of Saquon Barkley’s solid combo day as a runner (19 attempts for 64 yards) and receiver (8 catches for 79 yards and a TD), and rookie WR Darius Slayton’s ultra-efficient two-TD day that maximized his only two catches of the afternoon. In the end, though, it was not enough, as Detroit demoralized the Giants in the fourth quarter with a trick offensive play that put the Lions ahead for the eventual win.
Now sporting a four-game losing streak, Big Blue returns to the Meadowlands to take on traditional rivals, the Dallas Cowboys – who just stopped their own three-game skid with a convincing 37-10 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, and retaking 1st place in the middling NFC East. The Giants will be throwing a new defensive element at Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, with DE Leonard Williams coming over from the Jets as an added pass rusher. Add to that the possibility of WR Sterling Shepard returning from concussion protocol, and Danny Dimes has a decent shot at righting the ship against the wildly inconsistent Cowboys.
Doubles Game Pick:
If the 2019 Jets can beat the Cowboys in East Rutherford, then the 2019 Giants sure as hell can too. Dallas may be 7-point favorites, but I think Big Blue takes this one in a high-scoring game.
Unibet is featuring some of the best bets for MNF. So, i’m going to make a small wager on one of them, where the Giants win and both teams combine for OVER 47.5 points. If this double play parlay hits, it will be a hefty payout of $48 on a $10 bet (that’s +480).
Plus, if you are trying Unibet for the first time, you can still take advantage of the $20 in free bets, with no deposit required. I’d back up my Giants/OVER parlay with individual free bets on the Giants +7, and OVER 47.5.
Cowboys vs. Giants – Top Prop Bets
Here are some tempting player props for what may turn into a Monday Night shootout:
Top Prop #3 – Saquon Barkley will get 75+ receiving yards
$100 to win $190 (+190) @ PointsBet
Barkley caught eight balls for 79 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 against the NFL’s worst pass defense in Detroit. He’ll have a stiffer test in Week 9 with a home contest against Dallas’ 9th-ranked passing D. Regardless, last week’s performance showed that Saquon is back being the center of New York’s offensive system. With Danny Dimes willing to throw it his way 10 times a game, 75+ yards through the air is well within reach for Big Blue’s dual-threat back.
Top Prop #4 – Dak Prescott will pass for 300+ yards
$100 to win $210 (+210) @ PointsBet
Way back in Week 1, Dak Prescott had his best-rated quarterbacking day of 2019 – finishing with a 94.9 QBR, thanks to an impressive 405 passing yards, four TDs, and no turnovers. Things have slowly gone downhill for Dak, since then. However, after leading the Cowboys to victory last week, and putting Dallas back atop the NFC East, Prescott seems primed to make a statement with his arm against the Giants’ poor secondary. I think 350+ is in the cards for the Dallas QB in what will likely be a high-scoring game in the Meadowlands.
Top Prop #5 Amari Cooper will get 125+ receiving yards
$100 to win $190 (+190) @ PointsBet
If Prescott is going to reach the passing total that I think he will in Week 9, WR Amari Cooper will play a big part in getting him there. The top Dallas receiver is coming off five catches for 106 yards against Philadelphia. A few games before that, he ripped off 226 yards on 11 receptions against Green Bay. For this game against the Giants, I think Amari will get plenty of attention from Dak, and expect Cooper to surpass 125 yards.
Stay tuned to The Props Network for NFL best bets all season long.