Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos 8:20pm EST
Chiefs -3 at Broncos +140 ML
O/U 49 -110
Game Preview – Chiefs vs Broncos
Three weeks ago, a lot of people probably had this circled as a best bet on KC, but since then the Chiefs have lost at home to Indy and Houston. Indy essentially shut them down except for one brilliant play by Mahomes and then went up 17-3 on Houston before getting blown up by DeShaun Watson because their defense is truly terrible.
When the Chiefs were up 14 friends of mine were talking about how they wished they had put more money on them, but from my barstool I saw nothing but a big fat loss coming.
For the record, I laid off the Chiefs in spite of my public play and was leaning Houston at kickoff. These things happen all the time. Instead I took the over and got a push.
This Thursday, Kansas City is nursing a lot of injuries and have to go to Mile High on a short week. Denver is healthier, they’re at home, and KC’s defense is a big equalizer since I think they’ll have a hard time stopping Phillip Lindsay and are bad enough to make even Flacco look good. Yes, the Chiefs have a lot of weapons, but tackle Kendall Fuller and guard Andrew Wylie are out and Mahomes is dealing with the previously mentioned bad ankle.
Game Pick
Until Mahomes is fully healthy it’s hard to trust the Chiefs as a short road favorite. Denver is healthier and feeling feisty and home teams generally do better on Thursday nights. If this were last year when KC seemed to drop 49 points on everyone I might be all over them, but laying as much as 3.5 while they have a rash of injuries including their generational-level QB? It gets dicey.
The thing is that in the end, coaching could tip it. Who would you rather grab? Of course, Reid is the better coach and right now everyone is saying, “there is no way the Chiefs can lose three in a row.” Seems too easy. This one is more or less based on who you can trust. I trust the score being lower than expected.
The Pick: UNDER 49 Points
Bonus Teaser Play: Broncos +9 and UNDER 55
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