NFL picks for those who are too hip (or drunk) to bet SQUARE
Current NFL Picks Record: 19-10
Last Week: 5-5
I really hope you didn’t find yourself laying a ton of points last week because the dogs were howling. The Eagles (I hate that band so much) laid an egg and ruined the teaser by losing to Detroit.
What we learned in NFL Week 3
Every time you guys sing that stupid, “No one likes us, we don’t care” song, understand that because of shit like THIS is the reason why no one likes you:
The Eagles are unpredictable and undisciplined and capable of ruining the most gimme of gimme games around. And don’t even start with me about that bullshit in Green Bay on Thursday night. Matt The Flower is a loser and he gift-wrapped that game for you. Sitting on 4th and short inside the Philly 10 he kicks a field goal instead of going for it. Then, when the Packers get a TD with a chance to tie on a two-pointer, he kicks, then two drives to the goal line he somehow finds a way to make a once in a generation quarterback look like Marcus Mariota and blows them both.
That wasn’t the mythical bad beat, that was an abdication of responsible play calling. Didn’t you get the memo, Matt? KICKING IS FOR LOSERS, you mope. You and Kirby Smart should run a school for overrated shitty coaches and call it Smart Flower School For Losers or something.
Oh, my God, the Browns are as bad as all the haters wanted them to be.
Freddy Kitchens is such an incompetent boob he can’t even keep track of downs on one of the most important drives of the game leading him to run for the first draw on a 4th down play in over 20 years and then, while Jared Goff continues to figure out how to do pre-snap reads without McVay in his ear, doesn’t run the ball once inside the Rams ten. With coaches like this who needs coaches.
Someone also pointed out that Gardner Minshew is everything Baker Mayfield imagines himself to be. Ain’t that the fucking truth? I love a little shit talking, Baker, but can you stop jawing at Rex Ryan long enough to learn how to do more than one read before your eyes drop and look for places to run?
Jacoby Brissett is really good. That is all.
Stop comparing him to Luck. Luck is gone and never coming back. People who qualify the Colts’ early success by mentioning Luck are kind of insulting Lucks decision to move on with his life without pain and suffering and really shitting on a roster that is loaded with talent. It’s sort of like saying with one side of your mouth that there is no “I” in team then saying out the other side that Luck is what made the team go. Don’t do that.
The Colts are built to win now and it’s no accident that Brissett got a nice contract. He’s legit, he will put up solid numbers, and Indy’s gonna make the playoffs or at come close, because who knows what will happen. I sure as hell don’t.
Thank God the Eli Manning Experience has come to an end.
I no longer have to watch him fumble and fuck up and throw the ball five yards and play like me if I were a quarterback. Never have I felt more in touch with a ball player than I have with Eli. He is the epitome of Tom Brady’s line about playing until he sucks and Eli did that in spades. He made playing like shit into an art form the last few years.
Whenever a quarterback hangs on waaayyyyy too long they will have to measure up to the level of shittiness Eli set. It’s celebratory because maybe the Giants will be fun again, but it also means that a team I could consistently fade is no longer that shitty. Thanks for the cash, Eli. You helped my bankroll in ways you cannot possibly imagine. Au revoir, Eli!
I told you not to bet the Pats. The Cowboys? Eh, I get it.
But let’s be clear-eyed about this, if the Dolphins had at least one player who could catch a pass Rosen might have covered that line. Keep this in mind against San Die … er, the Los Angeles Chargers Who Should Go back to San Diego who are dogshit against the spread and have to travel east to cover a 16 point line. Anyways, without further ado …
On to the Dick Picks!
THE NFL CHALK ADDICT SPECIAL
I know you’re out there. I see you. You’re in plain site and walking up to the window looking at this week’s slate of games and thinking you have BIG WINNERS. Oh boy, oh boy, the Pats are gonna kill the Bills! Oh my GAWD, look at the Colts only laying a TD against the Rayduhs! Oh, yeah, my boy Mahomes gonna light the Lions on fire, BAY-BE!
Look, I get it. On paper all of those teams are superior on paper. No dobt, no question, of course. However, just do this four-way teaser to satiate the raging square inside of you who is basically a loud mouthed wimp who is the opposite of the Hulk. Yes, I know, I have that idiot inside of me too and I am playing this teaser because yes, it could hit. Remember, last week was lots of dogs, so ya know, there’s that. Also, consider splitting this into two two-team teasers in any combo you like. For me, the Chiefs and Ravens would be the strongest two-team combo4 Team 6 point teaser
4 Team 6-Point NFL Teaser
Strongest 2 Team 6 point NFL Teaser
Feel better? Don’t go crazy now, you kids. Now run along and don’t drink too many beers on your way to the window.
Raiders +7 at The Colts
Bet Indy at your own peril. In spite of my glowing endorsement of the Colts and my open-faced man love for Brissett, this is a dangerous spot for Indy. They might be in a look ahead spot facing the Chiefs next week.
Remember, now matter how much you love this team, they are still growing and gelling together, so don’t think they are not susceptible to looking past an opponent even if they say they are not. They almost got caught down the stretch by lively but ultimately incompetent Atlanta for a nice short home cover. Now they get Oakland off a putrid loss in Minnesota and having to get back on a plane and go to the eastern time zone and play at 10 am on their body clocks.
Don’t fall for it. I love Indy, but they are not quite to the level where they should be laying a full seven against anyone. This is straight up market overreaction and the Colts are still working some things out, ESPECIALLY their run defense. Also, Hilton is still on the mend. Tease the Colts down if you can and I think they are going to win outright, but I hate this number. The market is saying that to buy the Colts you have to treat them like the Patriots. Don’t buy into it. This has Oakland covering written all over it.
The Pick: Oakland +7
Washington Redskins +2.5 at NY Giants
I do not come here to bash Eli anymore. I am not on the Daniel Jones Is Truth bandwagon and probably never will be, but he can throw the ball downfield and has some mobility. That alone makes him a viable. The thing is that the Giants are not really that well put together. No Barkley, No Cry and I think Gallman will be serviceable, though I am really enjjoying stories about how people were dropping 70 dollars on him in auction fantasy leagues. Come on, guys. Get your shit together.
Did anyone else fall asleep during that Monday game against Chicago? Is it just me or are the Redskins just one of the worst teams of the last 10 years, Miami notwithstanding. I’d argue the Redskins are worse because this is a team that was crafted this way intentionally. Think about that. Your team is so bad that not only is Jay Gruden still the coach, but your left tackle would rather forfeit his checks than play.
I don’t think you need to do a lot of analysis to feel comfortable fading DC in this spot.
The Pick: Giants -2.5
Cleveland Browns +7 at Baltimore Ravens
The Freddy Kitchens and Baker Mayfield marriage is a glorious dumpster fire. Where all the creativity and fun from last year went is anyone’s guess, but the absolute worst version of the Browns is on display. Tantalizing talent all over the field marred by poor execution, horrible play calling, terrible clock management, irresponsible inattentiveness during crucial moments of the game, and inexplicable game management. Like, who the fuck is in charge here? I like the fact that Kitchens and Mayfield both took responsibility for their horrendous performances, but considering that te rams totally shit the bed and could not get a consistent passing game going against Cleveland’s depleted and injured secondary is a bad, bad, bad sign. Cleveland was missing virtually all of its starting DBs, yet Goff STILL threw two picks and still couldn’t score a first half touchdown.
Let’s do a quick rundown: The Browns are 28th in scoring, 25th in YPG, 18th in PYG, and 24th in RYG. Mayfield has three touchdowns and five interceptions while only average 7.4 yards per completion. The guy Brees said reminded him of himself is completing only 56.9 percent of his passes.
Seriously, shut your big, fat mouth and just go play football, dude. Yeah, i said it again and it will need to be repeated. I love a shit talker. LOVE IT, but not when you’re playing like dog shit and not able to back up that yapping. I know, I know, it’s part of you and all that shit about staying scrappy or whatever because you were a walk on that no one believed and hurble gurble you’re a starter now, but you have to just play football.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are ranked first in PPG, YPG, and RYG and seventh in PYG. Sure the points are inflated by the Dolphins game, but face it, the Ravens can roll up on anyone any day and make your life miserable. Jon Harbaugh is a better coach than his brother and he most definitely is better than Kitchens. Lamar is smart and talented and can kick your ass in the air or on the ground.
Their defense ain’t bad either. They are ranked second only to New England (holy shit, they have given up just 36.7 per game against atrocious teams) in Rushing YPG allowed with 60.3 and overall are ranked 16th giving up just a hair over 350 yards per game.
Baltimore is coming off a backdoor cover. Cleveland is coming off being embarrassed on national television by their own damn selves. Who do you think has the edge in this game?
THE PICK: Baltimore -7
See you For NFL Week 5 and my weekly Betting 101 column. Only at Thepropsnetwork.com.