Entertainment analyst, Scott Yager, looks as the current Oscar favorites for Best Director and Best Picture.
The betting odds for the Oscars at Draftkings move up and down based on what transpires at the early Awards season shows. Tracking this ‘line movement’ is how you can gain key insight for the purposes of betting and Oscar pools. Today, let’s look at the Best Picture and Best Director categories, after another busy Awards Season weekend.
Mendes took the DGA Directing Award. What does this mean for Best Picture at the Oscars?
The DGA (Directors Guild) Awards took place over the weekend. Sam Mendes won the big prize for his directing of 1917. Mendes was already the favorite going into Oscar Sunday, but now his line for the Best Director Oscar has moved all the way to -670. The real question is whether this win for Mendes signals 1917 moving even further into the likely Best Picture winner spot.
Right now, the Oscars page at DK tells the story of a race that was relatively unaffected by Mendes’s DGA win. 1917 is a -230 favorite to win Best Picture and Parasite is now +450. The odds on these two films to win Best Picture were only slightly altered by the weekend awards season happenings.
The Mendes win does likely make him a sure thing to take Best Director at the Oscars.
However, it might actually allow voters to ‘spread it around’ a bit and give 1917 that prize, while awarding Parasite in the Best Picture category. In recent years, the Best Director winner has not had the same luck in Best Picture. It has happened where a film wins both awards In fact it happened recently with The Shape of Water. But Best Director is not a surefire predictor of Best Picture by any means, and it is clear that voters can separate their adoration for a film’s direction and the film overall. However, (Parasite director) Bong Joon Ho has other categories in which he will be heading to the stage, like Best Foreign Language Film & perhaps even Best Original Screenplay. So, it’s possible voters look at 2020 as Mendes’ time to shine and give 1917 both Best Picture and Best Director.
The question is now whether you should take the opportunity to bet 1917, or take it in your pool, or whether you should remain unfazed by this recent development. It’s possible that it’s just due to great viral marketing by the film’s studio, Neon, but I still have a good feeling about Parasite. It seems to be more beloved than 1917 and people really feel strongly about it’s merits, whereas 1917 is something that everyone just agrees was very well-made. It’s possible that the preferential ballot does end up favoring 1917 for that reason, but it could also help Parasite which seems to be high on almost everyone’s list for Favorite Films of the Year.
My take on the Best Picture and Best Director Oscars Odds right now:
I would stop placing bets on Bong to win Best Director at this point. Mendes is probably the move to make in your Oscars Pool for Directing. But the -670 betting odds at Draftkings make him a no-go for betting purposes. Unless, of course, you are looking for a near guarantee that you win $1.50 on your $10 bet.
Also, don’t be scared to take Parasite in the Best Picture race now. The payout on Parasite Best Pic bets lis looking like a great value at +450 odds. That’s a $10 bet to win $45 at Draftkings. While in Oscar Pools, Parasite could be way to gain a point on the majority of your competitors. You can assume that many of them will go with 1917.
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