Parasite & JoJo Rabbit took home the top editing trophies at the 70th Annual ACE Eddie Awards. What this could mean for the Oscars.
The Ace Eddie Awards, the Editing Branch’s own Awards Ceremony, took place this past Friday. They can potentially be an indicator for what to expect from the Editing Category at the Oscars. And, Editing is a category that can potentially be an indicator for larger success later in then night (just not so much recently). This is some of the first real quality Oscars betting research that we have had come in from the branch & guild awards.
This year is the most wide open Best Picture field in a while. So, benchmarks like the Eddies and the SAGs are all the more important in reading the tea-leaves and predicting the eventual Oscar winner. This is how you can get an edge in betting and pools.
Parasite is the film to take note of here.
It won “Best Edited Drama”, where it was up against fellow “Best Film Editing” Oscar nominees Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman & Marriage Story.
Just like that, following this news, the line for the Editing Oscar has shifted. Now, Ford v Ferrari is +100. It started at -134. Still a favorite, but a substantial shift in the line. Irishman is second favorite at +140. While, Parasite at +300 is looking like a great underdog play here in the third slot after the ACE win. It is surprising these lines didn’t move a bit more. Irishman & Ford v Ferrari still are the clear favorites here, but the Editing category is really up in the air. However, we do now know for sure that Parasite was preferred by the editors themselves, and a great deal of these editors will be voting again for the Oscars.
Recently there has been quite a lot of cohesion between the ACE Eddie and the Oscars, which is what makes the Eddie a good predictor for Oscars betting. In the last 4 years for instance, the Eddie Winner for Best Edited drama is 3 for 4 in predicting the Oscar Winner. Mad Max Fury Road, Dunkirk & Bohemian Rhapsody all won both the Eddie for Best Edited Drama & the Oscar, whereas Hacksaw Ridge won the Oscar after losing the Eddie to Arrival.
JoJo Rabbit won in Best Edited Comedy or Musical.
This is a separate ACE editing category, which means nothing because none of its opposition are even in the Oscar race. At +4000, or 40-1, it might be a worth a SMALL play at best on JoJo Rabbit in Best Film Editing. Just know that the Best Edited Comedy or Musical Winner has not gone on to win the Oscar since Chicago in 2003. It is fair to say that this category is more the Editor’s way of being able to honor two films and not create a second Oscar contender.
A Best Picture indicator?
The Parasite win for for Best Edited Drama at the ACE Eddie has even further potential impact than the Best Film Editing Oscar category. In fact, it could be a sign that a Best Picture win is on the horizon for Parasite. The odds for Best Picture are still +450, putting it at the third favorite after Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1912.
Since Parasite, like 1912, is not up for any acting categories, picking up support from the editors at both the Eddie’s and of course the Oscars, is one step closer to getting it the wins it needs to validate that case for Best Picture. Since this is the first indicator we’ve gotten that a Best Picture run might be in Parasite’s future, this looks like a great time to take a shot at the +450 Payout. That’s a $450 win on a $100 Bet.
Sure, the last Best Picture winner to also take Best Editing was Argo in 2012. However, before that films like The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire, Departed, Crash, Lord of the Rings, and Chicago all took both Editing & Best Picture Oscars home in the same year.
The editing Eddie is not the Best Picture predictor that it once was.
But this is a year where you have solid candidates like Parasite and 1912, who don’t have the acting representation here much like the aforementioned Slumdog Millionaire didn’t.
Its possible an editing win for Parasite is the spark it needs to take the top prize at The Oscars.
My Take: In my opinion, that +450 number won’t be going up, only coming down. I say this based on what I know about how some of these other awards b odies vote. If for instance, Parasite takes home Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards on Sunday, look for this Best Picture line to to move down closer to +200. So, if you are thinking about betting on Parasite, I think now is the time.
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