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Tua is officially leaving Alabama for the 2020 NFL draft.

Tua Tagovailoa was a heavy favorite to be the first pick before the season-ending hip injury, at -150. He is expected to make a full recovery from surgery, but will need to sit out one year before playing again. So, an NFL team will need to take on his rehab.

Since Tua went down, Joe Burrow has emerged as the obvious first pick with QB needy teams at the top of the draft order. Burrow, the LSU quarterback, is now -1250 at Pointsbet to be selected #1 by the Bengals. While on the other hand, Tua’s first pick odds have grown to +1600. That puts him behind Chase Young at +500 to be drafted first this year.

Could Tua possibly be the first pick?

The answer is almost definitely no, and the oddsmakers have made this clear. Burrow seems like a great fit for the Bengals, and he is ready to play now. Tua means waiting a year. Even in the event of an off-season injury or some other circumstances that would cause Burrow to fall in the draft order, that still would not make the Bengals go with Tua instead. Our Take: +1600 isn’t high enough.

Top Tua Prop

Pointsbet asks if Tua Tagovailoa will go Over or Under 4.5 in draft position. Under the number is +200, or a $200 payout on a $100 bet.

Our Take: This makes sense, as it does not appear that there is another team in the top of the draft order who will be in a position to take him. It also seems unlikely that a team who does want Tua, would feel any need to trade up to have him. If anything, this will work out better for the young QB in the long run. He will likely end up with a class organization like the Patriots, who can win with him when he’s ready. So, we think the Under 4.5 draft position for Tua is an obvious choice and a decent value play.

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