Every week I make NFL Picks here at The Props Network. If you like free plays and bonuses at legal online casinos, drop a bookmark here.
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Enough with the plugs, here is what we learned last week…
Just past the quarter pole and we know a few things:
The Pats will crush inferior competition, the sun will rise in the east, and Revenge of the Nerds has not aged well.
Also, Brady is getting fucking old fast. The Pats better pray they don’t get washed in the first half against a quality opponent because this is five weeks in a row the Pats offense needed a full half to get warmed up before just demolishing another garbage team in the second half.
The Rams are about four feet away from being 4-1.
But are instead stuck in a must-win game against the vastly overrated Niners. The Seahawks are getting by with smoke and mirrors while Pete Carroll does his best to give away games by attempting field goals at the end of the first half and sort of insisting that he wants to give his opponent every chance possible to get back in the game.
My darling Colts are f’ng rad, ain’t they?
I never should have doubted them and I will admit I faded/cheated on them in that spot because I am dumb as fuck and want you back baby, please. Frank Reich is an excellent coach and man, oh, man I appreciated the absolute dismantling they did on the Chiefs. Sure, Jesus in Cleats dropped a fucking DIME of a TD pass, but with a bum ankle some of his outside the pocket heroics are gonna be limited until he can heal up a bit.
Anyways, the Colts defense is good, they can control the ball on offense, Brisket doesn’t turn the ball over, and Marlon Mack is vastly underrated. Can you tell I think highly of this team? How much do you think I will like them coming off a bye week?
God damn, the Jags are fun to watch.
The Vikings are still quarterback away from a deep playoff run. The Redskins are the worst organization in football. Bill O’Brien should be fired for trading Clowney. The Ravens defense is made of baby shit.
If Cam were fully healthy, the Panthers would be looking at around 13 wins in spite of Ron Rivera being the most under the radar bad coach in the NFL.
Dallas is not what I thought they were and have no business laying seven on the road against anyone.
Also, I’ll put a nickel on Atlanta firing Dan Quinn after one more loss unless he goes on some insane six game winning streak.
Anyways, on to the games of the week.
(All lines For my NFL Picks are from Caesars)
Texans +175 ML at Chiefs -4 O/U 55
Kansas City at home coming off a straight up ass kicking at the hands of the Colts catching Houston coached by a glorified 4th period gym teacher who traded one of the best outside pass rushers in football for a bag of magic beans and an IOU written on a bar napkin.
If you take the Texans in this spot you’re basically betting on Deshaun Watson freelancing his way into a win. I can’t back Houston coming off an easier-than-it-looked win against Atlanta at home while Kansas City is looking at a bounce back spot at home. Keep in mind the line on this game started at Houston +8 and the public has hammered it all the way down to a key number.
My boys and I have been waiting to press the button this game all week and I hope even more money comes in and drives it down to 3.5 so I can take the Chiefs in the morning and watch BOB mope on the sidelines while Andy Reid coaches circles around him.
The Pick: CHIEFS -4 (with prayers that it gets down to 3.5)
My love Minshew grows every day and I love this spot for the Jags. Saints in a possible look ahead spot with Chicago looming next week? Not sure I buy that, but I do buy that this is a spot where they could get caught with their pants down in a possible let down after a nice division win at home.
Saints +135 ML at Jags -3 O/U 44
The Jags find ways to hang in games, and their defense is solid even if it’s not at the level it was in 2017. The Jags need this one badly if they wanna keep their hopes alive for a wild card spot. The historic numbers say Saints because Teddy is 26-7 ATS for his career (mind you that’s including games from before he almost lost his leg) and Jax is 5-20 ATS in non-conference games since 2013 with the likes of Blake Bortles under center.
Yeah, yeah, I know they lost to Carolina last week, but we’re talking their quarterback wearing Daisy Dukes, swigging shitty whiskey, giving all of his promotional goodies to his teammates, driving a shitbox of a car and no, you’re not talking me out of betting on this kid this week in this spot. Seriously, I have not found myself rooting for a player like this in years, so YOLO.
The Saints are probably the smart play because, among other things, Sean Payton is a far better coach than Doug Marrone, but I won’t be doing some insane shit like putting a triple bet on the Jags.
Fade me, I don’t care.
The Pick: JAGS -3
Eagles +150 ML at Vikings -3O/U 44
Yes, the Vikings are tits at home and their defense rocks and their running game is amazing, but they have Kirk Cousins and Sean McVay is not going to be walking through the door to call plays in his ear. It’s clear that Mike Zimmerman has no faith in Cousins and unless the Vikings can basically grind out a 20-10 win behind a strong running game, then they are screwed.
I am guessing that Philly stacks the box and dares Cousins to beat them. If they can force the game into Cousins’ less than capable hands, they will win and I think they will do just that. I’m grabbing those points. I am putting my faith in Philly hitting the road and I like them finding ways to beat the Vikings. I like the idea of them forcing Cousins into making mistakes. I don’t think Zimmerman ever embraces the concept of play action. I think the Eagles win outright.
The Pick: EAGLES +3
Niners +140 ML at Rams -3 O/U 50.5
The Rams have lost two in a row, Gurley has a banged up quad, Greg the Leg missed a big kick, Goff is being Goff and underperforming, the league has a ton of film on the Rams, the interior of their offensive line sucks, and McVay’s game plans are getting easier for defensive coordinators to diagnose. Talib is out, Mathews has a broken jaw, and the Rams defense is giving up points left and right over the last two weeks.
The Niners are 4-0 coming off a big win at home against Cleveland, the defense is slaying and getting massive pressure, Matt Breida is a monster in the open field, and Jimmy G is playing pretty, pretty well as he gets aclimated to Kyle Shanahan’s insanely complex offense.
This means you’re hammering the Niners, aren’t you? This is where the Niners come in and assert their authority against the Rams who have basically no home field advantage, right?
Well, keep in mind that the Rams are coming off extra rest, the Niners are going to be missing joe Staley at left tackle, and Jimmy G is still not proving to anyone that he’s the guy who should have taken over for Brady. I am not the biggest fan of Goff, but I am much more comfortable trusting McVay and Wade Phillips game-planning against a vastly overrated Niners team that has played, the fucking Bucs, Bengals, Steelers, and Browns. The Rams have had to contend with the Panthers, Saints, Browns, Bucs, and Seahawks and should have won last week.
I ain’t buying this Niners hype. Not one bit. Not until they prove it.
The Pick: RAMS -3 (and hoping the public hammers the line down to 2.5)
6 POINT TEASER SPECIAL
Lighting round. Dallas has no business being a seven point favorite on the road against anyone. Baltimore’s defense is a sieve. The Falcons are trash on the road. Cleveland is in a nice bounce back spot and I trust Pete Carroll less and less as time goes on.
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