Our NFL analyst continues his quest to bet on every game, every week.
It’s time for week 6, and I’m feeling hopeless. Every week I hover around 50% on my picks. That’s nowhere close to the 100% mark I aspire to achieve. I know it’s a lofty goal, but I was hoping after 5 weeks I’d at least come close. You know, maybe have an 80% week or something. Obviously, this isn’t logical thinking, and if you’re a new bettor these might be thoughts that go through your head. Sure, I want a perfect week, but I’m not expecting it to happen, and neither should you when you bet on sports.
If you’re a numbers nerd like me, this might interest you. Through five weeks, I’m 4-1 when betting on 6 teams. They are: Ravens, Seahawks, Raiders, Washington, Buccaneers and Panthers. All teams over .500, interestingly enough. I’m also 1-4 when betting on 4 teams. They are: 49ers, Vikings, Jaguars and Dolphins. All teams under .500. Clearly I came into the season with expectations too high for these teams, and I need to adjust accordingly.
That being said, this will absolutely be the week I get every game right. So buckle in for the most incredible picks you’ve ever seen in your life.
In case you’re new here, here are the ground-rules I set for myself in this weekly quest for a perfect week of NFL betting: I can’t take heavy favorites, all odds must be less than -160, and I must bet on every single game, every single week. So without further ado, let’s get into it.
- Week 5 Record: 7-7
- NFL Season Record: 41-34-2
Best Bets – Week 6 NFL Picks
Falcons at Vikings: Falcons +5 (-129) [BetMGM]
Since 2003, 26 coaches have been fired midseason, including last week’s Bill O’Brien firing. In the week after the firing, those teams have gone 11-15 straight up and 14-12 ATS. I made the mistake of betting against the Texans last week, but I’m riding with the team that has something to prove this week.
The Vikings offense stalled when Dalvin Cook left the game in week 5. If he sits out, which it seems like he will, I think the Falcons can keep the game close. The Vikings secondary is still bad, and the Falcons have 2 of the best wide receivers in the game. If Julio is back from injury, Matt Ryan should have his way on offense.
Ravens at Eagles: Ravens 1H -4 (-110) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
I’ve said it once and I’ll keep saying it until I’m wrong, the Ravens are a fast starting team that takes their foot off the gas in the second half. In the Ravens four wins this year, they’ve led at halftime by 18, 10, 11, and 17 points.
The Eagles tend to keep games close with their scrappy play, so I feel much more comfortable taking the first half spread than taking a full game spread where the Eagles could sneak in the backdoor.
Bengals at Colts: Bengals +8.5 (-115) [BetMGM]
The Colts offense has left a lot to be desired through 5 games. That’s my nice way of saying that Philip Rivers is a bad quarterback. If the Colts put Jacoby Brissett under center, I instantly feel about 50% better about this offense. That’s not going to happen anytime this season, thanks to Rivers’ massive contract, so I’m going to take the young exciting quarterback in this matchup.
The Bengals just got demolished in week 5 against the Ravens. Absolutely crushed. They couldn’t get anything going on offense and they looked like trash. The Colts defense is a force, but the Browns showed that the Colts incredible numbers were due more to their schedule than their defense. This is a get right game for the Bengals and this number is too big for a Colts team that doesn’t have the offense to blow teams out (other than the Jets, but they don’t count as an NFL team).
Texans at Titans: Titans -3 (-110) [BetMGM]
I’m pounding this bet. I’m shocked that the Titans aren’t favored by a touchdown here, and I wouldn’t be shocked if this number shot up throughout the week and into the weekend. Here’s basically what it comes down to for me: the Titans are good, the Texans are bad.
The Titans are literally undefeated. They just crushed another undefeated team in the Bills on Tuesday after having a crazy COVID outbreak. How can you not love this team right now? The Titans offense thrives when AJ Brown is healthy, and their defense was able to hold the Bills offense to 16 points on Tuesday, despite that offense averaging over 30 points per game prior. This bet seems too easy, which is exactly why the Texans will win by 10. I just can’t bet against the Titans here.
Packers at Buccaneers: Packers -1 (-110) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
The Buccaneers looked abysmal on Thursday night last week. The refs didn’t help much, but when you’re playing with a lead against an offense like the Bears, you have to close that game out. Tom Brady is senile and needs all his weapons to be healthy to be a threat on the field, and the Bucs receivers have had the injury bug badly this season.
The Packers on the other hand, have looked incredible this season. Sure, their defense hasn’t always shown up, but the offense is averaging 38 points per game, and that’s with Davante Adams injured the past few weeks. Now that Adams has had the bye week to get healthy, this offense should fire on all cylinders and Rodgers should continue his dominant season.
Cardinals at Cowboys: Cowboys +9 and Over 48 (-110) [Borgata]
I don’t know if I ever want to watch a Cowboys game again after CBS showed us Dak’s broken ankle for 15 seconds straight and didn’t cut away. Dak was having an historic season and I’m bummed to see him go, but Andy Dalton looked more than serviceable when he came into the game in week 5. He went 9 of 11 for 111 yards and brought the Cowboys back against the Giants. Also yes, the Giants managed to score 34 points on this Cowboys defense, so they are truly the worst defense in the NFL.
I don’t love what I’ve been seeing from the Cardinals, and this feels like one of those “play for Dak!” games where the Cowboys will come out and play it close. With all the weapons the Cowboys have, and with how bad the Cowboys defense is, I’m teasing the Cowboys and the over.
Bears at Panthers: Bears +3 (-110) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
David Montgomery should blast through this Panthers defense that is giving up 5.4 yards per rush attempt, leaving Nick Foles to do what he does best: stay out of the way and win games.
Browns at Steelers: Browns +5 (-129) [Borgata]
The Steelers are kind of fraudulent. I do think they’re a decent team, but who have they played this year? The Browns should keep this close.
Broncos at Patriots: Patriots -7.5 (-106) [BetMGM]
This all depends on if Cam plays, so this might be a pick I come back and amend closer to kickoff. If Cam is in, this could be a blowout. If Cam isn’t in, I’ll switch over to the Broncos to cover the points.
Lions at Jaguars: Lions -3 (-110) [Unibet]
The Jaguars have had one good game all year and it was in week 1. Maybe it’s finally safe to say that their win over the Colts was a fluke. The Lions with Kenny Golladay are solid offensively and they can do enough on defense to get the win.
Football Team at Giants: Football Team +9 and Under 49 Teaser (-110) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
The Giants are awful, and they won’t get to face off against the Cowboys defense again this week. Washington will have to make a decision at QB, but whichever way they go, I think they can keep the game close.
Jets at Dolphins: Dolphins -7 (-135) [BetMGM]
It’s the Jets. What more do I really need to say? The Dolphins aren’t world beaters, but there’s no way I can bet on this Jets dumpster fire.
Rams at 49ers: Rams -2.5 (-115) [BetMGM]
After the display the 49ers put up last week, and how consistent the Rams have been, it’s hard to trust a 49ers team that benched Jimmy G against the Dolphins.
Chiefs at Bills: Chiefs -3 (-121) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
The Bills defense is atrocious, and I’m not convinced Josh Allen and company can keep up with the Chiefs, who are going to play angry after their loss last week.
Can you hear that? That’s the melodic tune of perfection blasting off this web page! Week 6 is the week! If you want to blast me for any of these picks, hit me up on twitter @steveclark217. Whether these are perfect or not (they will be), let’s enjoy some football!
Must be 21+ to bet online. Do you or someone you know have a gambling problem? Call 1.800.Gambler today.