NINE Home Underdogs highlight the Week 6 NFL Betting Landscape
Here we go with Week 6 of the NFL Season, and I am more grumpy than usual. After starting the season 3-0 ATS, your grumpiness has taken two straight losses thanks to Andy Reid and his Jekyll & Hyde Kansas City Chiefs. They crush me as favorites against the Eagles and then pull a no show when I back them last week against the Buffalo Bills.
In addition, my fantasy football team is now 0-5, after a 1-3 team hung 150 points on us last week. That makes 662 points scored against us in the first five weeks, by far the most in our league. I feel like Urban Meyer, just without the 20-year-old grinding on me in a bar.
Speaking of Meyer and his Jacksonville Jaguars, they are one of the nine, that’s right NINE home dogs on the NFL schedule this week. Kicking the week off with the Eagles +7 on Thursday night, we also have the Jaguars +2, Bears +6, WFT +6-, Panthers +2-, Lions +3-, Giants +8-, Patriots +3- and Titans +5-.
Last week we saw a feast of favorites with the teams heavily backed by the public, the Packers, Cowboys, Bucs, Titans and Bills, all covering the spread, crushing the books in the process.
This week things started off well for the doggies when Nick Sirianni, who has shown he has no idea what he’s doing as a head coach, inexplicably went for a 2-point conversion down 7 against the Bucs. Well, they made it to cover the +7-point spread by a point, and in the process kicked the 80% of public bettors who had Tampa -7, squarely in the cogliones.
This isn’t the first time the Eagles hurt a bettor with a two-point conversion. Last year the Birds cost a bettor $500k who backed the Seahawks -6- when a Hail Mary and 2-pointer with twelve seconds left in the game made the final score 23-17. Ouch.
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Speaking of history, another interesting nugget from Thursday night is that Tom Brady is now 0-11 ATS in his last eleven prime time games. So much for the GOAT.
So, will any of these home underdogs cover the spread and possibly win the game? Let’s take a closer look.
First up are the Jags who are technically the home team even though the game is being played in London. This line has dropped from Miami -3- and the favorite is coming off an absolute destruction by Tom Terrific and the Buccaneers 45-17, so they obviously stink just as much as Jacksonville. But do you feel comfortable backing Meyer’s charges? I sure don’t.
Next up we have the Bears +6- against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. This line opened at GB -4- and the majority of the cash has been placed on the favorite. Both teams come off a win and cover last week and the Packers have won nine of their last ten games against the Bears, including two wins by double digits last season. For our purposes the Pack is 7-3 ATS in those last ten games against the Bears.
Who knows what to make in the Washington Football Team, Kansas City Chiefs matchup. It’s a scenario where a team that was supposed to have a vaunted defense plays a team that has absolutely no defense. WFT is +6- and the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS, but Washington is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS at home, so again this one has me flummoxed.
The Panthers looked good in the first half against the Eagles last week and then had a total meltdown in the second half to lose a game they never should have lost. They come into this week +2- at home against the Vikings. This line opened Panthers -1, but with 65% of the spread money coming in on the visitor the home team is now the dog.
Two more cats line up against each other this Sunday with the Detroit Lions coming in as +3- point underdogs to the Cincinnati Bengals, who blew a golden opportunity to beat the Packers last week. The Lions are 0-5 SU, but have a winning record of 3-2 ATS, covering against the Vikings, Ravens, and 49ers. The Bengals are 2-3 ATS, going 1-1 ATS on the road.
The New York Giants suffered multiple injuries last week and were absolutely crushed by the Dallas Cowboys in Big D, 44-20. This week they are +8- and host the high-powered Los Angeles Rams. The Giants are 2-3 ATS, but 0-2 ATS at home, losing to the Broncos and the Falcons on Eli Manning Appreciation Day. I’ll pass on this dog.
On Monday night the Titans are catching +5- points from the public’s favorite new darlings those Buffalo Bills. “Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills”, well except in those four Super Bowl losses. The Bills come into this one 4-1 ATS, with the only outlier being the opener in Pittsburgh where they just didn’t show up for the game and lost outright 23-16 as -6- point road favorites. Tennessee is 3-2 ATS, splitting their two home games against the spread.
That’s an intriguing game, but this week Grumpy will be putting his money on the New England Patriots +3- against the Dallas Cowboys. That’s right I’m going against those same Dallas Cowboys who for the second week in a row are the only remaining undefeated team ATS in the NFL. They’ve covered three times as favorites, but all at home. On the road they beat the Chargers outright and lost by two to Tampa Bay Tommy. Those are two really good teams, but I think Belichick and the Pats will cover and perhaps even beat the Cowboys OUTRIGHT! There I said it.
The game opened Dallas -4- and has dropped to Dallas -3- even though the Cowboys are the most bet ticket in Vegas this week thanks to the public who will continue to plunk down their cash on the one team that keeps covering for them week after week.
Well, it has to end sometime, as does my losing streak. I think this is the week. We shall see.
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Enjoy week 6! I hope you are fortunate.