We’ve got an incredible game scheduled for the AFC Championship game Sunday. The Cincinnati Bengals will head to Kansas City to face off against the Chiefs. These teams faced each other in the regular season, and the Bengals came away with the win.
Could we see another performance such as that from Cincinnati? Or will there be another outcome this time?
The Kansas City Chiefs were able to eliminate the Bills last week with a 42-36 victory. This week could be slightly tougher for the Chiefs as they face Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Stopping the Bengals offense didn’t go well in the regular season; the Chiefs will need better defense this weekend.
Let’s take a look at both of these teams and see if we can make an accurate pick.
Kansas City Chiefs: Defense should be priority No.1
A big problem that has plagued the Kansas City Chiefs is their lackluster defense. Last week, they allowed the Buffalo Bills to score 36 points, nearly losing the game. The Bengals offense is just as lethal, and the Chiefs need to do all they can to stop it.
The Chiefs have one of the worst pass-defense teams in the NFL. This season they’ve allowed 251.95 passing yards per game.
We all know how great the Chiefs offense can be, but that is less of a focal point. They need to focus more on pressuring Joe Burrow and limiting the output of Ja’Marr Chase. If they can pull that off, they might be able to secure a win in the AFC Championship.
If not, the Chiefs could fall victim, yet again, to a great offense. Still, they’re overwhelming favorites, especially at home.
Cincinnati Bengals: Protect Joe Burrow at all costs
For the Bengals, the game plan here is rather simple, protect Joe Burrow. The Bengals’ offensive line allowed Burrow to be sacked much too often last week against the Titans. Turning the ball over to Kansas City is a recipe for a loss.
One way they can alleviate the pressure on Burrow is by establishing a running game. The Chiefs’ defense allows 113.89 rushing yards per game.
By giving Joe Burrow more time to throw, he can target his multiple offensive weapons. They have the seventh-best passing offense in the NFL, throwing for 258.32 yards per game.
Considering the Chiefs have a weak secondary, the Bengals are in good shape to win this one. At the very least, they’ll be able to keep this game within the current 7.5-point spread on Sunday.
Betting Stats
The Kansas City Chiefs come into this game as the obvious favorites. The current odds are Kansas City -7.5, the Moneyline has Kansas City at -350, with the total set to 54.5. We know the total seems a little high, but it’s important to remember how the Chiefs have performed lately.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas City’s last seven games, so keep that in mind when betting.
The Cincinnati Bengals have done pretty well against the spread on the road. They have a 7-2 ATS record and are 7-3 against Kansas City in their last ten meetings. Taking that into consideration, the team that wins this game might surprise you.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Prediction
Taking everything we went over into consideration, we’ll take the Bengals to cover the spread here. If you’re feeling riskier, you could take them +280 on the Moneyline to win the game. They’ve done incredibly well against Kansas City in the past, and the Chiefs’ secondary is awful.
Something else to add to your ticket is the over, as this game will definitely be high-scoring.
The Chiefs’ defense has been a problem for multiple seasons, and it hasn’t been addressed. This game will yet again showcase all of the problems the Chiefs have in that area. Look for Joe Burrow to have a strong game against Kansas City, exploiting their secondary the entire time.
It might sound like a long shot, but when looking at the trends, the Bengals are a great pick.
Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 over the Kansas City Chiefs
