NFL Picks for the whole Christmas week slate
I had a really good week 15. I bounced back after a lackluster week 14, and with a win percentage of 58% on my bets, I should be incredibly happy with how things are going. But as a Rams fan, i must rant.
What I witnessed on Sunday has caused me to spiral out of control. It gave me flashbacks to the Jeff Fisher era, the Scott Linehan era, and yes, even the Steve Spagnuolo era! In a must win game against a winless team, the Rams completely took a dump in the bed. I’m really appreciative of everything Sean McVay has done for this team, but Sunday made me question every single thing about his coaching. 3rd and 13? Better throw a screen for 4 yards. 3rd and 3? Better throw it into double coverage 20 yards down field. I can’t make sense of it.
I honestly don’t know which fanbase is more upset about the Rams losing to the Jets. The Rams might miss the playoffs this year, but the Jets may have just cost themselves 15 years of above average to great quarterback play. The whole thing is a mockery, and feelings I haven’t felt since the dark days of going 2-14 began to creep back in my head. The Rams are a brutal mistress, and I seem to have forgotten just how badly they can let me down. Shame on me. After enduring abuse from this franchise for 20 years, I should never let my guard down.
With all that being said, it’s time to bet week 16! I’m doing well this year, but I’m still angling for that perfect week of NFL betting, and week 16 is the week I do it!
In case you’re new here, here are the ground-rules I set for myself in this weekly quest for a perfect week of NFL betting: I can’t take heavy favorites, all odds must be less than -160, and I must bet on every single game, every single week. So without further ado, let’s get into it.
Top Five Bets For NFL Week 16
- Week 15: 11-4-1
- NFL Season: 126 – 89 – 9
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Dolphins at Raiders: Dolphins -2.5 (-110) [Unibet]
My my, the Raiders are doing it again. Just like last year when they controlled their destiny heading into the final stretch of the season and collapsed, they’re doing the exact same thing in 2020. If it weren’t for Gregg Williams bailing them out a few weeks ago, the Raiders would be 0-5 in their last 5 games. Just a catastrophic meltdown.
On the other side, the Dolphins are the best in the NFL against the spread, sitting at 11-3 on the season. They’re locked into a tight race for the final wild card spot with the Ravens, and this is an absolute must-win game. We still don’t know who will be starting at QB for the Raiders, but I don’t think it matters. I’m taking the better coached team with the better defense.
Giants at Ravens: Giants +18.5 and Under 52 Teaser (-110)
I’m going back to my old bag of tricks for this one. If you would have teased the Giants and the under in all of their games this year, you’d be sitting at 10-4. The last two weeks haven’t been great, considering the Giants offense has been completely anemic, scoring only 13 points in two games, but being able to tease their number up to 18.5 makes me like taking them here.
Lamar is going to have a little more trouble running the ball in this game, as the Giants have only given up 165 yards on the ground to opposing Quarterbacks on 61 carries. Add that to their stout defense against running backs, giving up only 1173 yards through 14 games to the position, and the Ravens might be forced to pass the ball a little more than they’d like. If this Giants offense can figure it out even a little bit, they should be able to stay within 18.5 points.
Bears at Jaguars: Over 44.5 (-130) [Pointsbet]
Taking the over in a game that features Mitch Trubisky and Gardner Minshew as the starting quarterbacks? I know it sounds crazy, but hear me out! The Bears offense has gone on a tear since Trubisky took over four weeks ago. They’re averaging 31 points in those four games, and they’ve been able to exploit really bad run defenses.
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Well guess who they’re facing off against this week. A terrible run defense. Jacksonville is allowing 146.5 rushing yards per game to opposing teams, and David Montgomery is poised to have another huge showing. We just saw what the Ravens were able to do to this Jaguars defense, and although I’m not saying the Bears are even in the same neighborhood as the Ravens, they have similar offensive gameplans. Run the ball and don’t make your quarterback do too much with his arm. If the Jaguars can put up 14 points, I feel great about this hitting the over.
Panthers at Football Team: Under 46 (-115) [William Hill]
The Washington Football Team’s defense is for real. I know this isn’t breaking news or a hot take, but this is the type of defense that could win the NFC East at 7-9, and then go on to beat the Rams in the wild card round. When this happens in 3 weeks, don’t be surprised.
All that being said, if you look at the Football Team’s last ten games, only two of them have gone over this number. Their games tend to live in the ballpark of 23 – 17. The Football team is 9 – 5 hitting the under this season, and I don’t expect that to change against a Panthers offense that hasn’t exactly been explosive as of late. Also, who is going to be Washington’s quarterback? Dwayne Haskins celebrated his loss to the Seahawks last week by going to a strip club where nobody was wearing masks. Alex Smith has one functioning leg, so I don’t expect this offense to put up a ton of points.
Titans at Packers: Titans +11 and Over 48 Teaser (-110)
Who have the Packers beat this year? Well, they’ve only played against three teams with winning records, and they went 1 – 2 in those games. The Packers did this same exact thing last year. They dominated bad teams and ended the year with an inflated record. They’re an overrated team, and I think the Titans make that clear in this game.
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First let’s talk about the over. Both of these offenses are incredible, averaging 31 points per game each. This will be a shootout, and I think the Titans offense is good enough to keep up with this Packers team. If the Titans can’t keep this game within 11 points, then the Packers will prove that they do deserve to be the top seed in the NFC. I’m taking my chances with Tennessee keeping it close.
NFL Week 16 – Rapid Fire Picks
Vikings at Saints: Saints -6 (-108) [Fanduel Sportsbook]
This Vikings defense is bad, and the Saints will exploit that in this game. Dalvin Cook is probably one of the only matchup-proof running backs in the league, but he’s going to have a tough time in this game against the Saints. The Saints need to win, and I think they do just that.
Buccaneers at Lions: Buccaneers -7 (-130) [William Hill]
The Bucs continue their streak of only beating bad teams, and I think they keep it up against a Lions team that just gave up 46 points to the Titans. The Lions have now given up 30 or more points in four straight games, and they currently are a bottom 5 defense against the run and the pass. Tom Brady needs to get into playoff mode, and this is a great game to get his confidence up before the season ends.
49ers at Cardinals: Cardinals -3 (-110) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
For some reason, the 49ers are still getting decent spreads against teams that are way better than them. Sure, the 49ers beat the Rams twice this year, but you know who else beat the Rams? The Jets! The 49ers beat the Rams every year, I’ve said this over and over again, and for some reason they continue to be overvalued. So give me the Cardinals to win by 3.
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Falcons at Chiefs: Falcons +15 and Under 57.5 Teaser (-110)
The Falcons blew another lead last week, and if you’re a Falcons fan at least this time you can celebrate getting a better draft pick out of it. The Chiefs should win this game, but as we’ve seen all year, the Falcons are a scrappy team that love to lose by one score, so I’m teasing the Falcons number way up and taking the under on a huge total.
Bengals at Texans: Bengals +10 (-121) [William Hill]
The Bengals really came through on Monday night to take some of the national headlines off of the Rams losing to the winless Jets on Sunday. Who saw that Bengals win coming? I certainly didn’t, and I didn’t intend on betting the Bengals this week, but when I saw that their number was so high despite coming off a win against the Steelers, I really don’t think I have a choice against a weird Texans team.
Browns at Jets: Jets +10 (-110) [BetMGM]
I’m not falling for the narrative that the Jets look better now. I mean, they definitely have looked better in the past few weeks compared to the first half of the season, but they were historically bad in the first half of the season. Just because they beat the Rams doesn’t mean I’m banking on them covering against a red hot Browns team. The Rams suck, the Jets took advantage of some terrible coaching, and now the Browns will smoke them.
Edit: It’s Sunday morning and the Browns are missing basically all of their wide receivers. I still think the Browns can run the ball at will against this Jets team, but I can’t imagine a blowout win with no passing game. I’ll take the points with the Jets. May God have mercy on my soul.
Colts at Steelers: Colts -1.5 (-110) [FanDuel Sportsbook]
JuJu has already come out and said that he will no longer dance on opposing team’s logos. That doesn’t really matter this week, but it’s good that he’s finally realizing that you shouldn’t give professional football players any more of a reason to want to beat you than they already have. This Steelers team is skidding into the end of the season, and I just can’t bring myself to trust them whatsoever in this game against a Colts team that has looked very solid all year long. I actually put in a bet for the Colts at +2.5 before the Steelers embarrassment on Monday night, but I’ll use the spread that I’m seeing on Wednesday.
Broncos at Chargers: Broncos +4 (-121) [Borgata]
On those rare occasions that the Chargers actually win a game, they never blow the other team out. The Broncos certainly aren’t a good team, but they also play a ton of close games. I have no idea which of these teams will win outright, so I’m taking the points with the Broncos.
Eagles at Cowboys: Eagles +3 (-110) [Fanduel Sportsbook]
Even though the Eagles got beat pretty soundly by the Cardinals last week, I’m not jumping off the Jalen Hurts bandwagon. He’s an exciting player that will keep this Eagles team in games. The Cowboys have turned things around a bit in the last few weeks, but I think the Eagles come away with a huge win here to stay alive.
Rams at Seahawks: Rams +3 (-121) [Pointsbet]
You probably don’t want to hear me say anything more about this Rams team. They are disappointing. They’ve been disappointing me since I was 9 years old. I’m still taking them to beat the Seahawks this week. Sean McVay is a much better coach than what he showed in the Jets game. It seems like he wasn’t taking his opponent seriously and got caught. This game is for the division, and I’m expecting a huge bounce back from McVay and the Rams.
Bills at Patriots: Bills -6 (-110) [Pointsbet]
The Bills are for real and they’re firing on all cylinders heading into the end of the season. The Patriots have nothing to play for, and are outmanned in every category in this game. Give me the Bills in a game I don’t expect to be super close.
And there you have it! A perfect week of NFL picks! All I want for Christmas is to pull off the impossible task of getting all 16 games right, and if I don’t, then I’m going to find and kill Santa Claus.
As always, hit me up on twitter @steveclark217 with any comments on my picks this week. There’s only two weeks to go in the regular season, so let’s appreciate what we have while we still have it! Bet responsibility, and as always, enjoy the football!