UFC Holm vs Aldana: Elite women’s bantamweight fights and a legend trying to get back in the win column.
Story of the Card – UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Aldana is a fight night card without huge implications for the UFC landscape. Holly Holm, who killed the queen with her famous knockout of Holly Holm takes on rising contender Irene Aldana in the main event. In the co main event two big hitters seek supremacy in the Heavyweight Division. Below that another fight in the women’s bantamweight division as kickboxer turned Mixed Martial Artist Germaine de Randamie takes on Julianna Pena. Finally on the prelims a UFC legend looks to get back in the win column as Carlos Condit takes on Court Mcgee while hoping to curb his 5 fight losing streak.
UFC Fight Night – The Best Bets for Saturday Night
Carlos Condit vs Court Mcgee
Carlos Condit is arguably the biggest name on this card and in a tough but typical position for legends of the sport. “The Natural Born Killer” has lost 5 straight and is probably looking to retire in the near future but he’s spoken about hoping to go out on a win. Condit is 36 years, mercifully most of his losses lately have come via submission but he’s still taken a ton of damage in his career. Condit was one half of what many regard as the best fight in UFC history when he fought Robbie Lawler at UFC 195. Arguably neither man was the same after that fight.
Court Mcgee is a step down in competition for Lawler so if he’s gonna right the ship this is a great opportunity. Mcgee was a collegiate wrestler and professional boxer so he’s a well rounded fighter. He’s on a 2 fight skid as well and not significantly younger. Court is a big guy moving down from Middleweight to Welterweight relatively late in his career. I don’t think Condit is capable of being the buzzsaw he used to be but there have been moments in his last few fights that remind us what he can do. He’s still capable of creative outbursts of violence and I think he summons up a victory to (hopefully) ride off into the sunset on. Give me Condit to right the ship. Condit to win +106
The Pick: Condit to win +106 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top Prop: Condit via KO. Call me sentimental but Condit has always been a finisher.
Number to Know: 30 professional wins for Condit. He’s got an insane pedigree and an argument for being the champ as recently as 2016. Begging the MMA gods to give me one more victory for Condit.
Germanie de Randamie vs Julianna Pena
Another Womens’s Bantamweight fight. Pena and De Randamie are both top of the division fighters. If Pena wins she could conceivably get a chance to be sacrificed to the Queen of Violence Amanda Nunes. Pena is a good fighter who has been inactive for long stretches. De Randamie is coming off a lost to Nunes but has shown herself to be a top tier talent. She’s big for the division and a former kickboxing champ with excellent striking
Since 2012 De Randemie doesn’t lose except to Amanda Nunes. She’s a smart and powerful fighter who certainly won’t beat herself. Pena is talented but doesn’t have the same background as De Randemie and is coming off a long layoff. De Randemie is one of those fighters who might not be able to beat the champ but consistently wins against the rest of the division. I think this is a good gatekeeper fight for Bantamweight but I don’t see any particularly compelling reasons Pena gets it done. Give me “The Iron Lady” in an impressive striking performance.
The Pick: De Randemie to win -130 at PointsBet Sportsbook
Number to Know: 16. That’s the number of seconds it took Germaine De Randemie to take out Aspen Ladd last July. De Randemie has power and is always a threat to finish.
Yorgan De Castro vs Carlos Felipe
Two big boys throwing down in an exceptionally sloppy co-main event. This fight, as with most heavyweight fights, seems relatively simple. Felipe is a young sloppy heavyweight with cardio issues. He hits hard but doesn’t move particularly well and lost his debut by getting absolutely gassed after failing to score the knockout. De Castro, from Cape Verde, is a slightly older sloppy heavyweight with Cardio issues.
De Castro has ann impressive knockout of Justin Tafa on his record but otherwise there’s very little differentiating these two in my eyes. The height, weight, and reach are nearly identical and they have relatively similar styles. With a dynamic like this give me the underdog. Heavyweight MMA can easily turn on a single punch so I’ll take Felipe here. Carlos Felipe to win +215
The Pick: Carlos Felipe to win +220 at FanDuel
Number to Know: 24 strikes landed by De Castro in all 3 rounds combined in his last fight against Greg Hardy. He’s not particularly active or accurate.
Irene Aldana vs Holly Holm
This is a pretty drastic dropoff after last week’s main event. We’re not likely to see a striking clinic like Adesanya put on last week however both these women are good strikers. Irene Aldana scored a picture perfect left hook knockout of Catlan Viera and showed off good body punching, a rarity in MMA. Holly Holm is famous as the pro boxer who took out Ronda Rousey but she’s more active as a striker than powerful.
Holm is definitely a Jackson Wink fighter. Holm cycles through a collection of techniques in an effort to keep opponents guessing. Irene Aldana is a powerful and athletic bantamweight fighter who showed serious pop in her last few fights. I think the popular sentiment is that Holm will be the better striker here but I was really impressed with Aldana’s last few fights and like her to win this one. Holm is horribly durable and not a finisher so no matter how this plays out I doubt this one ends via stoppage Aldana continues to ascend the division.
The Pick: Aldana to win -105 at PointsBet Sportsbook
Top Prop: Irene Aldana by decision.
Number to Know: 6.16. That’s the number of significant strikes per minute landed by Aldana.
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