Rendon, Grandal, Bumgarner, and Hamels just changed teams. But how much does Vegas value these big money deals in the MLB futures market?
In recent days, four of the top-10 talents in this years MLB free agent class found new homes. Among them, Anthony Rendon, Yasmani Grandal, Madison Bumgarner, and Cole Hamels. While Vegas says that all of these teams improved their playoff chances, none have made themselves the odds on favorite to win it all. Let’s look at the impact of each splash signing on the MLB futures market at our top legal online sportsbooks.
Old Team: Washington Nationals
New Team: L.A. Angels
The star third baseman of the World Series-winning Nationals signed for seven years and $245 million. He’s now one of four Angels making more than $20 million annually. The team finished 72-90 in 2019, and is investing big to try and get Mike Trout a championship. With Rendon, they have a 29 year-old all-star infielder coming off his best season. He batted .319 in 146 games, with a league-leading 126 RBI and 44 doubles. In his last four seasons, he has compiled a 20.5 WAR.
MLB FUTURES IMPACT: Does Rendon change the oddsmakers outlook on the Angels?
Prior to the signing, Pointsbet had the over/under for L.A.’s regular season wins at 83.5. After the signing, that rose to 86.5. Also before the signing, they gave the Angels a +1000 payout to win the AL West, and a +2500 payout to win the AL pennant. After the signing, those numbers shifted to +600 for the AL West, and +1600 for the AL pennant. Finally, PB has L.A. at +3000 to win the World Series, with 14 teams ahead of them.
Over at Draftkings, BETMGMSPORTSBOOK“>BetMGM, the Angels are also middle of the pack in the odds to win it all. The payout is +4000, or $100 to win $4000. Meanwhile, Draftkings has L.A. at +2000 to win the American League pennant after this MLB free agency move..
Old Team: Milwaukee Brewers
New Team: Chicago White Sox
The two-time N.L. all-star catcher spent one very productive season in Milwaukee, after four quality seasons with the L.A.Dodgers. In 2019, the 31 year-old backstop crushed a career-best 28 home runs. It was his fourth straight season with 22 or more dingers. He also finished with a career-high 79 RBI and 77 runs scored in 153 games played. Chicago then signed Grandal to a contract worth $73 million over four years. This, after the team finsihed 72-89 in 2020.
MLB FUTURES IMPACT: Does Grandal change the oddsmakers outlook on the White Sox?
Before the signing, Pointsbet had the over/under for Chicago’s regular season wins at 80.5. After the signing, that ticked up to 81.5. Meanwhile, before the signing, they gave the White Sox a +375 payout to win the AL Central, and a +2500 payout to win the AL pennant. After the signing, those numbers held at +375 for the AL Central, and +2500 for the AL pennant. Additionally, PB has Chicago at +5000 to win the World Series, with 14 teams ahead of them.
As for Draftkings, BETMGMSPORTSBOOK“>Bet MGM, they give the White Sox the same odds of winning the 2020 title as the Angels, with a payout of +4000. When it comes to Chicago winning the AL pennant, the Draftkings payout is +2000.
Old Team: San Francisco Giants
New Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
This is yet another big money MLB free agency maneuver. The former-ace pitcher of three World Series winning teams in San Francisco is taking his talents to the Southwest. The Arizona Diamondbacks signed Bumgarner to a five-year $85 million deal. Last season, the 30 year-old lefty struck out 203 batters in 207 innings. He made a career best 34 starts, but also allowed a career-high 30 home runs while posting a 3.90 ERA. To bolster their playoff chances, the D-backs also invested in offense this offseason. They recently extended third baseman Eduardo Escobar on a three-year $21 million deal, after his breakout 2019. But there are still more pieces to add, if Arizona is to end the LA Dodgers 7-year reign as NL West champions.
MLB FUTURES IMPACT: Does Bumgarner change the oddsmakers outlook on the Diamondbacks?
Before the signing, Pointsbet had the over/under for Arizona’s regular season wins at 80.5. After the signing, that rose to 82.5. Moreover, before the signing, they gave the Diamondbacks a +1200 payout to win the NL West, and a +3300 payout to win the NL pennant. After the signing, those numbers shifted to +1000 for the NL West (where the Dodgers and Rockies are favored to win more games), and +3300 for the NL pennant. Finally, PB has Arizona at +6600 to win the World Series, with 19 teams favored ahead of them.
Draftkings ranks the Diamondbacks as having the 20th-best chance to win the World Series, with a payout of +6000. BETMGMSPORTSBOOK“>BetMGM has the the payout at +6600. Meanwhile, Draftkings has Arizona as +3000 to win the NL pennant, just ahead of the Rockies at +6000
Old Team: Chicago Cubs
New Team: Atlanta Braves
The veteran lefty spent his first 10 seasons with the Phillies. Now, he returns to the NL East with the Braves, who are seeking their third straight division title. To that end, Atlanta signed Hamels to a one-year $18 million deal, which doesn’t include a no-trade clause. However, moving teams midseason doesn’t seam to faze Hamels. The 35 year-old earned this deal off the back of 1.5 seasons with the Chicago Cubs, after joining them via trade from the Texas Rangers. In Chicago, he struck out 217 batters in 218 innings, while compiling 5.5 WAR. He now bolsters an already-strong Atlanta rotation that has the horses to finally win a playoff series… and possibly more in 2020.
MLB FUTURES IMPACT: Does Hamels change the oddsmakers outlook on the Braves?
Before the signing, Pointsbet had the over/under for Atlanta’s regular season wins at 90.5. After the signing, that stayed at 90.5. Additionally, before the signing, PB gave the Braves a +190 payout to win the NL East, and a +600 payout to win the NL pennant. After the signing, the division title number shifted to +175, while the pennant number held at +600. Finally, PB has Atlanta at +1200 to win the World Series, with only the Yankees, Dodgers, and Astros ahead of them.
Draftkings, Borgata Online, and BetMGM also rate the Braves among the top contenders to win the 2020 World Series, with a payout of +1200. Meanwhile, Draftkings has Atlanta as +550 to win the NL pennant, with only the Dodgers ahead of them at +220.
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