Our Top PGA Tour Nationality Props Bets for this Week.
The PGA Tour returns to action this week at the Charles Schwab Challenge and the betting action is already heating up. But, you don’t have to predict the winner to wager on golf. There are a huge variety of PGA props listed at the top US online sports betting sites, including Nationality Props.
Nationality Props are odds on a player to finish better in the event than all of his countrymen who are also in the field.
PGA Tour Nationality Props Picks for The Charles Schwab Challenge.
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Australia Nationality Prop Pick:
Six Aussies will tee it up at the Charles Schwab. Surprisingly, Marc Leishman is the heavy favorite over the likes of Jason Day and Cameron Smith. However, it’s another Cameron that i’ll be wagering on this week to be the top Australian player at the Chuck. That would be Cameron Davis for +900 at DraftKings Sportsbook, a young player who was rapidly rising when tour play stopped for Covid-19. He hadn’t finished worse than solo 38 over 5 stacked field tour events. This includes 8th at the Honda, where he gained 6 shots approach and 9 shots off the tee.
Ranked 44th in approach over his last 24 rounds on tour, I’ll take Davis to put up the strongest showing for an Aussie at the Charles Schwab. I’ll also predict a let down coming out of quarantine for Jason Day and Marc Leishman, two tour stars who likely have had their hands a bit more full during the pandemic than the young players. Give me Cameron Davis for +900 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sweden Nationality Prop Pick:
The battle for top Swede this week is between Alex Noren and Henrik Norlander. Noren is the heavy favorite here at -225. While Norlander is +163 at DraftKings. I’m failing to see such a big discrepancy in the stats though. Both weren’t playing great at the beginning of the year, although Noren had shown a few flashes of his old form. Don’t forget he was once a top 20 player in the world. However the odds seem to reflect more of the name recognition bias than the golf ability.
Over the last 36 rounds Norlander has been a better putter and most importantly he has found significantly more fairways than his countryman. Norlander ranks 9th in fairways gained to 63rd for Noren. Historically fairways gained is where we see the most separation of any stat category for winners at Colonial CC. I’ll take Henrik Norlander for +163.
Asian Top Player Pick (no individual country odds offered):
This is the easiest answer on the geography test today. If you were reading my tournament picks pre-pandemic, then you know I am a SungJae Im truther. He is quietly more committed to dominating the PGA Tour than any other young gun out there. Im had just racked up his first win at the Honda, 3rd at the API and was starting to charge up the leaderboard when the Players Championship came to an abrupt end.
I don’t care that he missed the cut at Colonial in 2019. That was pre Im-plosion. For +175 at DraftKings this feels like a great value on Im as the favorite, considering only 8 players from Asia are in the field. It would likely be a less juicy number if C.T. Pan had not pulled off T3 and T20 finishes at Colonial the last 2 years. I doubt C.T’s putting has improved enough to end the missed cut streak that he was on in early 2020. What about Ben An you ask? He’s the streakiest player on tour and requires time to heat up. SungJae Im is the play at +175.
Spain Nationality Prop Pick:
Three players from Spain will tee it up this week at the Charles Schwab. Jon Rahm at -225, Sergio Garcia at +275 and Rafa Cabrera-Bello at +600. Let’s go ahead and eliminate Sergio from the conversation. For many reasons, Sergio should be the longest shot in this threesome. And, if this were a head-to-head between he and RCB, i’d take RCB all day at any price.
The problem is that Jon Rahm is in this group. Rahm was on a roll towards Augusta when the season stopped and I think he keeps it going here, but I won’t be betting it. Rahm can finish top-5 every time he tees it up on the PGA Tour, but he also had major problems finding fairways and greens last year at Colonial on the way to a rare missed cut. That missed cut plus a lack of any value in the odds on Rahm means i’m staying away from Spain all together this week.
Ireland Top Player Prop Pick:
Did Rory McIlRoy look like a world-beater a few weeks ago in winning the charity skins game with partner Dustin Johnson? Did he do anything to impress you ? The world number #1 seems unlikely to win the first event out of the gate sans any momentum. But on the other hand you’re not going to take single digit odds on Graeme McDowell or Shane Lowry to finish ahead of Rory either.
Lowry certainly has the tee-to-green game to contend here but +300 is nowhere near large enough. McDowell at +600 to beat Rory and Lowry is laughable, considering he lost strokes in every single category at Colonial in 2019. This includes losing 3.4 strokes to the field off the tee. I’ll back Rory in the Irish group at -250.
Mexico Nationality Prop Pick:
Carlos Ortiz is not just ‘the other young guy from Mexico’. He was putting up good finishes in early 2020, including 26th at the Genesis and 16th at WGC Mexico. He had very good strokes gained approach numbers in all three of those events. But, where does Ortiz tend to loose shots? That would be the tee. In 13 appearances on tour in 2020, Ortiz missed more fairways than he hit 10 times. Ancer, on the other hand, gained more fairways than he missed in eight out of eleven 2020 appearances. Ancer also was accurate off the tee, but failed to get the putter going in his last appearance at the Charles Schwab (58 in 2019). Ortiz missed the cut. So, I’ll go with the ‘horse for the course’ and take Ancer to be the top Mexican for -186 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
America Nationality Prop Pick:
A dark horse pick for Top American that is not really a dark horse at all is Kevin Na at +3300. He won this thing last year and also holds a solo 4th place in 2018 and a T10 in 2015. I just think the number on Na is a a bad value considering the strength of the field this year. Many of the top players in the world tend to skip Colonial, but it’s a new world out there on the PGA Tour. Now he will be joined by the likes of JT, Brooks and DJ.
So, i’m staying closer to the top of the board on Americans and actually see some value on an elite player who was trending downward when the 2020 PGA Tour season shut down.
That player is Tony Finau. He was not playing well in 2019 coming into the Charles Schwab. After finishing 60th at the Wells Fargo and 64th at the 2019 PGA Championship, Finau was lights out off the tee and gained nearly 5 shots putting on the bent grass greens at Colonial CC. It seems like he doesn’t need to be in great form to dominate this golf course, so I’m seeing an opportunity for Tony to come out of the gate hot as the season resumes. Let’s take Tony Finau as Top American for +2500 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationality Props Picks Cheat Sheet:
- America: Tony Finau (+2500)
- Asia: SungJae Im (+175)
- Australia: Cameron Davis (+900)
- Ireland: Rory McIlroy (-250)
- Mexico: Abraham Ancer (-186)
- Spain: stay away!
- Sweden: Henrik Norlander (+163)
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