The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is the next stop on the PGA Tour. The West Coast swing brings us to the Monterey Peninsula for the event known to have the longest rounds on tour.
What we Learned From Betting on the PGA Tour Last Week.
Webb Simpson ended up winning the Waste Management Open in a playoff with Tony Finau. You may have missed this dramatic ending as it overlapped with the Super Bowl. Webb was one of the favorites to win the tournament, and came into Sunday hot off 2nd and 3rd rounds of 63 and 64. He didn’t play as good on Sunday, but neither did Finau or the rest of the field. Only Bubba Watson and Justin Thomas went low enough to threaten the lead.
Those of us who live bet JB Holmes, the two time winner of the event, watched him tumble down the leaderboard with a final round 75. Holmes is somewhat unreliable as a leader at any point in a golf tournament. But, the public doesn’t like him and he’s a talented player who is still one of the longer hitters out there. So, JB Holmes is always a value.
JB is a player to watch again this week at Pebble Beach, but he will be one of the few contenders from last week to tee it up. Simpson, Finau, Thomas and Watson are all skipping this one. As are most of the top players in the world. They don’t like the setup for this tournament so most take this week off every season. So, with no Mcllroy, JT, Fowler, Koepka Rose or Woods in the field, this is a good week for some longer shot players to cash in.
PGA Tour Betting – Top 5 Picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro AM.
The picks this week are coming from Unibet NJ Online Sportsbook. They offer more options for golf betting than any other site. You can get the same lines at Unibet PA Online sportsbook as well as similar betting options at other books. If you’re not sure what sites are legal to bet on, check TPN’s US online betting and DFS portal.
At Unibet they offer futures on every PGA tournament winner, but then they also break everything down into groupings, matchups and props.
The Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Event Details.
- The tournament is played on three courses. Pebble Beach plus Spyglass Hill plus Monterey Peninsula Country Club.
- 72 Holes. Begins Thursday, Feb 6th.
- Past Winners: Phil Mickelson (2019), Ted Potter Jr. (2018), Jordan Spieth (2017), Vaughn Taylor (2016).
- The cut happens after the third round at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. In most other tournaments with a player cut, it happens after round 2. This is done so that all players have played all three courses before the cut is made. The field of props shrinks to only the top 60 players on the leaderboard for the Sunday finish at the Pebble Beach course. The pro-am is a 54 hole event.
- The pro-am is a best ball format that combines the best score made on each hole by either the player or their amateur partner.
PGA Tour Betting Picks #5 – Paul Casey to Win Player Group A at Unibet
- Dustin Johnson +188
- Patrick Cantlay +250
- Paul Casey +450
- Jason Day +500
- Matt Kuchar +550
Fantasydata.com projects Casey third in the field for fantasy points this week, ahead of DJ. He finished 2nd at this event last year and out of these other four players, only Jason Day came within three shots of Casey’s -16 finish. Patrick Cantlay is always a threat, but we haven’t see him since the Sentry Tournament of Champions in early January. He finished 33rd here in 2018 and skipped 2019. He also seems like a guy who would hate being stuck with a CEO pro-am partner.
The Pick: The best value all day might be Paul Casey in group A at +450.
PGA Tour Betting Picks #4 – Daniel Berger vs Viktor Hovland – head to head matchup.
Hovland is one of the young stars who is extremely popular with the betting public right now. Meanwhile, Daniel Berger has been refocusing on the game and is emerging again as a top player in the world. He quietly tied for 9th place in Scottsdale last week and has top 30 finishes in his 5 of his last seven events. Viktor Hovland, on the other hand, has not been so great. He missed the cut last week when he was expected (at least by the odds makers) to contend, and hadn’t played much on tour since December before that. With the three course setup and local knowledge it takes to win at this tournament, we will go with the more veteran player who is also in much better form. Berger hasn’t played this event in recent years, but came in T10 in his last appearance at Pebble in 2015.
The Pick: I’ll take Daniel Berger to upset Hovland for an even money payout at +100
PGA Tour Betting Picks #3 – Russell Knox to win Player Group C at Unibet
- Russell Knox +300
- Phil Mickelson +300
- Jordan Spieth +333
- Adam Hadwin +350
- Graeme McDowell +400
Knox and McDowell are playing better right now than the rest of this group. Plus, both have had good finishes at Pebble. McDowell won last week in Saudi, so it is somewhat unexpected to see him with the longest odds. That speaks to possible insider knowledge that G Mac might not be at 100 percent focus and energy this week after the huge pay day overseas.
Jordan Spieth needs to show some progress with his putter before I can suggest backing him to do anything. Phil has looked in good form, and in great physical shape. But he’s in his 50s now and after the Saudi trip the Pro-Am could be a long weekend for Lefty. Then there is Hadwin, who finished 18th at Pebble last year and could be a sneaky pick in this group. However, he has only played in one PGA Tour event since November of last year. Knox has delivered strong T16 and T21 finishes over the last two weeks. Knox was also T15 in 2018 and T14 2019 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
The Pick: I’ll take the +300 on Knox to win this group.
PGA Tour Betting Picks #2 – Ted Potter could be the Next Top Past Champion.
This is a prop that I have only seen at Unibet, and it is a wager on who will finish with the best score amongst players who have won the Pebble Beach Pro Am in the past. Let’s just say that at +2000 this is worth a shot. He hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire since winning this tournament by 3 shots in 2018. Potter finished 3 clear of other past winners That year including Phil and DJ. Others on the list finished even further back.
Of course this is a long shot, but you can find a reason not to bet on all 5 players with lower odds than Ted Potter Jr. in this group. DJ played well in Saudi, and he’s always a threat to just power his way to a top finish in any tournament. Keep in mind though that Dustin Johnson started taking the huge appearance fee to play in Saudi last year, and then finished 45th at Pebble Beach the following week. Plus he has not won at Pebble since back to back trophies in 2009 and 2010. Vaughn Taylor has been average this year, and hasn’t caught the momentum that he had last season. Also, he missed the cut at Pebble last year.
Yes, Ted Potter Jr. also missed the cut at Pebble Beach last year and he shot an 82 in round 1.
He is not a guy who is accustomed to winning, so i’m chalking that up to the pressure to repeat after winning the previous year. Potter has also missed the last two cuts in 2020 after showing flashes of great play in January with T77 and T37 finishes at Sony and Amex.
Snedeker should really be the favorite in this group, and his odds are somewhat of a value at +350 because he missed the cut last week. So, a second bet on Sneds or just taking him as safer bet makes sense.
The Pick: +2000 is way too large of a payout to pass on here for a guy who won the event just two years ago. I’ll take Ted Potter Jr. to be the Top Past Champion at the Pebble Beach Prop AM. It’s been 10 years since DJ won this thing!
PGA Tour Betting Picks #1 – Paul Casey will win and not have to deal with passive aggressive Phil to do it this year.
Casey has been playing some very good golf recently, finishing T21 at The American Express and T19 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This means he is coming into Pebble in even better form than last year when he finished second behind Phil. That was the tournament where weather delays caused darkness that suspended play, even though Phil was determined to finish on time and get out of dodge.
This year Casey should face less resistance from the other top players.
It is possible that the unsettling situation with Phil and the suspended fourth round was cause for Paul’s less than stellar play on Monday in 2019. But, aside from Scott Stallings (who always plays his best at Pebble), no one else in the field finished within 3 shots of Casey.
That includes this years’s favorite to win at +650, Dustin Johnson. As I mentioned I am not picking Dustin Johnson to be a top finisher at Pebble this week. He started going to Saudi Arabia last year and it didn’t bode well for him the following week at Pebble. Plus, it seems that his father in law, Wayne Gretzky, might be somewhat of a distraction as a pro-am partner.
Looking at the numbers, Casey has played incredibly tee-to-green this season. He hit the second most greens at the American Express, and was 15th in total driving. He ranked 3rd in ball striking and went -10 on the par 5s. All of these stats are what you want to see for a player to excel at Pebble. I expect Casey to feast on the par 5s and give himself chances for eagles.
The Pick: I’ll be taking Paul Casey to be the outright winner at Pebble Beach for +1600 at Unibet. That’s a $1600 payout on a $100 bet if he pulls it off.
The Backup Bet: Casey at +450 to finish in the Top 5 is looking like a very good value that I will also make a play on at Unibet.
One More PGA Pick – A Long Shot with a Chance:
A player with long odds who could win this tournament is Cameron Champ. After joining the tour as a full time member last year, Champ has had mixed results in terms of success. He has already won this season back in September at the Safeway Open. More recently he has T15, T21 and T14 finishes so far in 2020. This includes a tie for 16th at Torrey Pines. Champ is from Sacramento and finished T28th in his debut at PB. So, he seems comfortable In California.
Champ was 11th in Ball Striking and -11 on the Par 5s in his last outing at the Farmers. He also putted well gaining 1.209 strokes putting on the field. If Champ brings his A game and gets a warm putter this week, look out.
The Pick: The chance that this could be a major breakout moment for Champ is hard to pass on at +5000. I’ll have a small bet on this as well as plus money on Cameron Champ Top 10 for +550 and Top 25 for +250.
Sam Cotler is a sports analyst and head of content for ThePropsNetwork.com. While his background is as a reality television producer, Sam is also a dedicated golf and PGA Tour nut. He has years of experience wagering (somewhat successfully) on professional golf.
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