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Sean’s Thursday TNF Special

I don’t usually pick TNF, but when I do, it’s a big important Rams, Seahawks game. Here is my preview and and play for Thursday.

Rams +1.5 at Seahawks
O/U 49

8 PM on Fox/NFL/Your sister’s Prime subscription

The Rams are in trouble coming into this one.

I faded them against Tampa. It felt and looked like a really bad spot for them since they were grinding through the first three weeks and sooner or later the dam was gonna break and week four felt like the right time. 

The defense got dismantled by Jameis Winston and Marcus Peters went into concussion protocol because Donovan Smith is a head hunting mo-fo who should have gotten tossed for that shit. Seriously, that hit should have drawn a suspension. Take the homer stuff out of it, Donovan wasn’t looking to make a tackle at the end zone, he wanted to hurt Peters and went for his head. F that guy. 

Jared Goff looks like shit partially because he’s not making good pre-snap reads, but also because the Rams are still working out the kinks on their line. A new center and a new guard makes shit way harder when it comes to protection shifts. Goff’s biggest successes have come off of play action, but for play action to work you have to run the ball and it seems like McVay has been working out some new offensive looks besides his standard 11 formation. 

Defenses have also made adjustments and you’ll see on All 22 footage that when Goff goes to deliver in rhythm or downfield that the defenses have flowed to where his receivers are going. He can’t just get an easy 12 yards to Woods on an out and under pattern under the safety and over the corner anymore. Cleveland was missing its entire starting defensive backfield but their game plan still kept Goff in check the entire first quarter. What, Cooper Kupp is going to be getting 15 targets a game? 

Now, drilling down a bit and Goff’s per-game average over six games against Seattle are: 

17/27, 197 yds, 0.8 TD, 0.8 INT (this includes 2018 when the Rams swept Seattle) 

Russell Wilson against the Rams over the same last six games? 

19/29, 215 yds, 1.4 TD, 0,6 TD

No wonder so many people are calling Goff and the Rams frauds. 

For me, Seattle is basically Russell Wilson.

There’s a guy I know in Los Angeles who is a big Seahawks fan and he hates Wilson. He would prefer a traditional drop back quarterback. He would trade Wilson straight up for Goff.

When he said that to me last year I about fell off my bar stool and said, “bruh, Wilson is f’ng carrying your team. You should be worshiping the ground he walks on because without him you guys are a 6 win team at best.”

He complained that Wilson runs around too much and holds the ball too long and blah blah blah. 

Russell Wilson just wins. End of story. If you’re a Seahawks fan be glad you have him because he makes anything possible. 

Now, Seattle played a little below expectations before handling the Cards.

Through the first three weeks they were 2-1, but let a really bad Cincy team almost steal a win. Then the Seahawks stole one themselves in Pittsburgh. That was the game when Big Ben got hurt.

The Saints special teams pansted them, but hey, shit happens. If things break the right way this team is 4-0 and gelling.

Me: next paragraph

The Saints special teams pansted them, but hey, shit happens. If things break the right way this team is 4-0 and gelling.

Instead Seattle is 3-1, and gelling. They rank 13th in offensive yards, 9th in points scored, and 8th in defensive yards allowed. The Rams above them on offense, but that’s after having their numbers inflated against Tampa when Goff threw 68(!!!! WTF) times because McVay apparently went into Madden mode and thought he could get the lead back then grind out a win with Gurley. Man, you gotta feed Gurley to get him going. 

Traditional spot plays point to the Rams on TNF. They are coming off a big loss at home and are going up against a division rival. However, it’s Thursday, in Seattle, and the Rams may not have Taylor Rapp. The hallmark of the Rams win over the Seahawks last year in Los Angeles was Aaron Donald making the big play at the end and sacking Wilson. That’s scary, but it is effective and it’s not like Seattle’s line play has vastly improved over the last year. 

The stats say to take the Seahawks, but before the Tampa game the Rams were -1.5. That means there was a big swing in value and some serious market reaction.

Whenever I see stuff like that I know the public sentiment is clearly pushing over towards the new favorite and the market has to react.

F that, I like the road dog here to bounce back on TNF. The Rams have too many weapons and it’s not a time zone shift. Gimme the Rams all night. 

TNF Game Pick: Rams +1.5 points @ Unibet

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