NFL picks for those who are too hip (or drunk) to bet SQUARE
Current NFL Picks Record: 14-5
Last Week: 7-3 Let’s not crazy. I’ve had nice stretches like this and I’ve also had stretches where I went 2-24, so I am not going to be over here bragging on how bitchin’ I am. I made plays based off last week’s picks along with game day bets that I did not have time to write about because this is not my only job. Week 3 of the NFL season is always more difficult for making picks than Week 2. Now there is enough nformation to mess with your head, while providing confirmation bias on what you think you know. It’s two games of performance and data and things are still shaking out. Do not get tricked into thinking you KNOW. We don’t know and we never will. Not even in week nine. We still have to put the work in.
What We Learned in Week 2…
The Patriots are still really good and can steamroll
The Pats not only covered a big fat number in Miami, they killed it. Now a lot of people are probably thinking of taking whatever team Miami plays in their survivor and picks leagues. That’s valid. And if you take the Pats to win by 21 or 22 against the Jorts, I won’t blame you. Drunk me will probably put a small bet on the game because I know Bill B loves to shit on the Jorts. On second thought, don’t take this one. Not even drunk.
The Rams are grinding
They are figuring out their offensive balance while the defense gets its self in order. I hit on the Rams against New Orleans, and they helped me right the wrong I had done in Oakland. They have a solid coaching staff and a ton of talent on both sides of the ball.
By the way, Cleveland is an absolute mess.
Freddie Kitchens looks out of his league and is acting like the bartender given the first shot at managing a Chilis after the previous manager (Gregg Williams) got fired. Kitchens and Williams were acting like two jerks fighting in an alley on Monday night what with the cheap shots and Kitchens being stupid enough to leave Mayfield in the game with a comfortable lead. I don’t trust Kitchens any further than I can throw Cadillac. Fade Cleveland whenever possible. The Browns needs discipline and structure.
Oakland sort of got screwed, but not really.
The Raiders jumped out to a 10-point lead which I figured would happen, but they are not tough or talented enough to hang with contenders. I sort of knew this about Oakland, but wasn’t willing to admit just yet because it was a division game. Don’t automatically take the Raiders when they are getting a touchdown from here on out. They aregoing on a brutal road stretch, but consider their opponents in teasers. Seriously, tease their opponents down and see if you can cash on the Raiders as being short losers. Don’t do it every week. Be strategic about it, but seriously look into it if teasers are your thing. Sorry if you followed me on the points and over. KC was too much, the refs made a couple weird calls, and shit
Baltimore got caught in a look-ahead spot against Arizona
Everyone is underestimating Zona and not taking them seriously. I don’t believe in their coaching staff. Why would you when they choose to kick field goals instead of going for touchdowns? The Cards are a dangerous team. Tread lightly betting against them.
Dallas is for REAL
Laying three touchdowns in pro football is generally a losing angle. Even against a tanking Dolphins team. The Cowboys are -21.5 @ Sugarhouse right now. Don’t get cute and lay a ton of cash on this unless you can really afford to. Better yet, just ignore this one. But my point here is the Cowboys are really good and could go all the way this year. They decisively won an early season division game in Washington, and that’s not as easy as it sounds.
Wasn’t it fun to see Jacksonville go for two?
I love that shit. I’m not a Doug Marrone fan, but I really like Gardner Minshew. and I had a nice double bet I laid on the Jags because I like his moxie. I also know for a fact Houston is one of the worst coached teams around (Bill O’Brien. They traded for Tunsil and Watson was still getting creamed in the pocket or running for his life. Bet on Houston if you like to lose lots of money or root for teams coached by people who should not be coaching football teams.
Spread: Titans – 1.5. Money Line: Jaguars +110 Over/Under: 39 points Thursday nights are great nights for home favorites. I know, I know, Carolina looked real bad against Tampa, but this is why the first two weeks suck. We had the wrong perception of the Panthers and it turns out that Cam’s foot injury is what is keeping him from leaving the pocket. I’m of the mind that the Jags are better off with Gardner Minshew than with Nick Foles. Foles is in danger of losing his starting job regardless of his injury. Big #$%! Nick’s massively over-inflated reputation comes from a playoff run that was more than likely the result of Doug Pederson & Frank Reich’s play-calling than it was Foles taking down the mighty Patriots with his talent as a QB. You don’t have to do a deep dive to see that Foles is a barely above-average quarterback who needs a complete team around him to succeed. That’s not a bad thing! He’s perfectly fine! However, Minshew gives the Jags some swagger that I don’t think many folks saw coming. G is rocking the third-best completion percentage (77.6) and is ranked seventh in passer rating (111.8). He damn near beat Houston on the road in his first start, has balls as big as the states of Washington and Oregon combined. Also according to a story I just read, he would wander around the streets of Pullman, Washington with a bottle of Crown Royal Vanilla in his waistband. I don’t just want to party with this guy, I want to bet on him. Need another reason to fade Tennessee? The Titans just got exposed for the frauds that they are by Indy who should have beaten them by two scores were it not for Vinatieri. Marcus Mariota is still subject to making rookie level mistakes and still talking like a rookie in the locker room after a loss. When you hear a guy who is five years into his career still saying things like, “those are things I’ve got to do better,” then you know something is way off. THE PLAY: JAGS +1.5 Points @ Sugar House where they are offering an unbeatable 100% free play bonus on deposits for new players.
It’s TEASERTIME ladies! This is going to be literally the fifth teaser in my life (I’ve won three) that I’ve played. I normally avoid them like the plague, but this week has three games that scream value and I am taking a
three-team six-point teaser play that looks like this;
Philly -0.5 (down from -6.5 against Detroit)
Minny -2.5 (down from -8.5 against Oakland)
GB -1.5 (down from -7.5 against Denver)
I want any of you to argue against that. I don’t think I have to spend 700 words talking you into taking all three of those home teams as super short favorites in games they should win coming off tight games. Do not go nuts and put too much on it because weird things can happen. But to me this is the best three way bets you can make. For you chalk bettors, this is as good as it gets. THE PLAY : THREE TEAM SIX POINT TEASER PHILLY, MINNESOTA, GREEN BAY @ Points Bet
Spread: Ravens + 6.5 Money Line: Chiefs -290 Over/Under: 52 Points So, are you really going to take the Chiefs at home against a live dog like Baltimore? I won’t blame you if you do. But are we really going to bet that KC covers three spreads in a row, with a defense that is built out of matchsticks soaked in gasoline? The boys and I were discussing Balty getting caught in a look-ahead spot against Arizona last week. So we all went in on Zona at +13 and cashed them tickets. Now, here’s the trick: Reality sets in and Baltimore has to actually play the early-season game they have had circled since the schedule came out. Let’s also be honest about the KC defense. Oakland aside, Kansas City’s defense does not SHUT PEOPLE DOWN. They hang on by their claws and basically count on Mahomes and company to save their sorry asses. This is a defense that got gashed by New England and got gashed by the Rams. They get gashed by everyone. They are putrid. What’s more, Kansas City is historically bad at home for such a supposedly great team. As in.500 ATS. Like, that’s on the same level as the Rams who supposedly have no home-field advantage. The Chiefs are supposed to have ONE OF THE BEST HOME FIELD ADVANTAGES IN ALL OF FOOTBALL HURBLE GURBLE. It’s so loud you can’t hear! Mahomes is Jesus in cleats! Andy Reid will blow your mind with his incredible play calling! The defense will give also give up 30 POINTS! This is not going to be some easy game for the Chiefs. And the market is inflated because the public looooooooooves Mahomes. He is unreal. But you forget that Andy Reid is still in charge and capable of fucking up a
game with his horrendous clock management skills that always keep good opponents in the game. Baltimore is a very good opponent, and I can even see them winning this one outright in week 3. It’s a tough one, I know, I know, but here, in this spot, give me THE RAVENS with the points all day. THE PLAY: RAVENS +6.5 POINTS @ Caesars Online Sports Book
SUCKER BET OF THE WEEK
This week I have two games that you should stay far far away from in your NFL picks. The Jets are getting 23 points vs the Patriots, and the Dolphins are +21.5 points at Dallas. Da Old Me would have bet both of these games and been all, “there’s no way these shit lords don’t lose by 40 a piece.” Da Old Me would have been crowing about how this is a no-brainer and even three touchdowns aren’t enough. Da Old Me would have come bombing in here telling everyone to make even a fun bet just for shits and giggles so they can tell their friends. Da Old Me was a moron. Just Look… Look, you are going to be tempted to bet these favorites because they look so obvious and delicious and tasty and you think that Miami and the Jets are going to get stomped. They might. They probably will. They may lose by a collective 69 points. However, history is damning in this spot and history says these inflated lines are chocolate covered dog turds with sprinkles and whipped cream on top. Since 2001 there have been seven spreads of 20 or more points. The last one to cover was the Rams in 2001 when they beat Carolina 48-14. Since then some historically bad teams with second and third string quarterbacks have covered every time as dogs. And, ta-da, four of those games featured the Patriots including 2007 when they had a perfect regular season. Like I said last week, these are professional players who want good game tape. If you are laughing at me or saying I am nuts, I get it. I used to do the same thing. But bucking history is not a good idea. Sure, the Dolphins are in full tear down mode. Minkah Fitzpatrick was just sent to Pittsburgh for a first rounder, and the Cowboys are coming off a nice road win. The Jets are starting a practice squad QB and the conventional wisdom is that the Patriots are the one team that can always beat massive spreads. That’s not true. Don’t do it. Seriously, stay away from these two games.
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