We love the Bill Simmons Podcast on The Ringer, and his “Million Dollar” NFL picks segment is a great listen for football bettors. Let’s recap this week’s picks for those who missed.
Premise: Bill Simmons wagers an imaginary $1,000,000 on the NFL slate.
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The Bill Simmons Million Dollar Picks for Week 2
$300,000 on the Rams – 2.5 points @ home against the Saints.
Why? Bill thinks the Rams are a top 3 in the league, and the game against Carolina wasn’t as close as the score says it was. This is a ‘prove it’ game for Goff and the Rams don’t care about the revenge game story regarding the NFC championship no-call. Bill “believes in the Rams and this line is too low”.
The guys pointed out that the Saints were not impressive on MNF and they have a bad record in September (both straight up and against the spread). Also Bill noted that the Saints lack weapons at WR after Michael Thomas, and that it’s going to feel like 90+ degrees outdoors in LA on Sunday.
$300,000 on the Bengals – 2 points @ home against the 49ers
Bill and Joe House discussed the 49ers game against the Bucs last week. They were not impressed with San Francisco at all. However the Bengals made a good Seattle team look bad. The Bengals are at home, and Zac Taylor might be a good coach.
Also Bill was impressed with WR John Ross for the Bengals and he could burn the 49ers. Bill pointed out that Ross is like a ‘sneaky Robert Woods type’.
The guys agreed that the Bengals might be better than we thought.
$250,000 on the Colts + 3 points @ the Tennessee Titans
It was agreed that the Colts looked good in their loss to the Chargers last week, and that it was ‘like a playoff game that either team could have won’. Marlon Mack looked particularly good running the football.
The Titans game against the Browns was weird and closer than the score. Bill does not trust Marcus Mariota to deliver in this one.
It was agreed that the Colts could be top 3-4 in the AFC.
$100,000 on the Jaguars + 9 points @ the Houston Texans
Bill and Joe agreed that there is value in the Jaguars. They explained that this spread is an overcompensation for the fact that Nick Foles is out, and the public loves “Big D$%& Nick”. It’s at least two and a half point swing in the spread, in their opinion. So anything over a TD feels like value to them in terms of the line.
They were not impressed with the Texans in week 1, and they think Gardner Minshew II could have success again this week at QB for the Jags.
It was agreed that Minshew could actually be really good.
$50,000 on a Parlay with the Jags to win + the Colts to Win
Bill really likes this parlay because he thinks both teams are getting good value in the Money lines due to overreactions.
The Colts lost to the Chargers, but they looked like a playoff team. While the Titans crushed the Browns, but it was a weird game and closer than it looked.
The Jags lost their QB, but the backup might actually be good and the public is overreacting. Also they played a really awesome Chiefs team in week one. On the other hand, the Texans did not look that good on MNF.
This imaginary $50k parlay would win about $535,000 from most Sportsbooks.
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