Betting 101: Chapter 3
Disclaimer: This is not for the experienced bettor. Sure, the experienced bettor can read this for entertainment purposes or to laugh at me, but this is for the guys who are dipping their toes into the warm, welcoming waters of legalized sports betting.
There won’t be a lot of talk about building customized models because I am shitty at math and if you are a programmer who is tweaking gambling algorithms, then none of this shit will apply to you.
We deal in flesh and blood here!
We care, damn it! We have to suppress our emotions because we get involved in this! I get to the bar an hour before the game with my betting sheet. I mark my winners and losers in the second quarter because I have watched so much football that I know that the Redksins are toast halfway through the first quarter. As long as Daniel Jones doesn’t turn it over.
I know the moment Joe Flacco throws that pick just before the half that Denver has lost their will to live. And I know Gardner Minshew is going to cash my ticket.
Do your models and algorithms and big brain math tell you that, Einstein!?
Anyways, here’s some more advice on how to not f yourself on a weekly basis.
You can see my previous advice on not f’ng ones self with football betting, and also get some really big fat sportsbook bonuses here at ThePropsNetwork.com.
This is the hardest one of all. It’s Sunday night, you’ve been drinking all day. Your early bets got destroyed, but your afternoon plays clawed back some cash and are keeping you in the black. You’re down on the week, but up on the year and you’re feeling pretty good about Team XYZ as a short road favorite against that team that’s missing its starting quarterback.
You start thinking, “go big or go home.” “Be bold and mighty forces will come to your aid.” You start thinking you can get it all back in one fell swoop and place all of your hard-fought cash on that short road favorite who promptly lay an egg on national television forcing you right back to square one.
Don’t do that. Sure, sometimes you will be looking at a game on Sunday where yes, you will have a massively good play to make where you can get back a sizeable chunk of your bankroll. I can’t say I have not saved my bacon doing that, but I have also put myself right back at zero doing that. It’s high-risk and if you don’t hit, you’re screwed. Just make a small play and revel in the fact that you clawed something back.
The best professional bettors in the world are hitting around 52-54 percent on a season. Same goes for the books. You have to remember that the margins are insane and because the game is played with an oblong ball and guys are running 20 mph and taking part in the equivalent of a car crash on every play things can happen that no one foresees.
A missed assignment, a blown coverage, a great cutback against the grain, a bouncing fumble, an injured quarterback, and about a million other variables come into play in each game.
It will happen. Like, a lot.
You will need to learn how to handle losing. This means adopting the sociopathic tendencies of a baseball closer and moving on as if it didn’t happen. Brooding over a bad week can cloud your reads and shake your confidence.
I will say this over and over again: Things happen in sports that completely go against your logic and the way you think a game will go. It has nothing to do with you. The point here is to make your plays with some logic and thought behind them that you can back up and justify laying your hard-earned cash on.
You have to keep that in mind, which is why you need to manage your expectations and take a deep breath now and again. Even the best pros have losing streaks. If you talk to one they will tell you about their epic skids and their horrible weeks and their awful reads or the stretch where they felt like they just weren’t seeing the board.
Go Back to Basics
The best thing to do in a spot like that is to reduce your liability until you feel like you’ve got your edge and your confidence back. Don’t go down a rabbit hole of desperation. Be smart and stick to your basics: Identify the best team, pick out the best spot, and remember to breathe.
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